Marin Real Estate (January 2010)

March 29, 2010 by  

We are approached daily by our clients with requests to predict what will happen in our local real estate markets in the near future. To shape our perspective, Morgan Lane researched Marin County single family home (SFH) sales and indexed them (on a units-sold basis) to multiple benchmarks including: interest rates (10 Year T-bill), unemployment (SF Bay Area) and an affordability index (income vs. cost of ownership). We continue to struggle to find direct correlation between Marin County real estate and these available indices.
We have found a relationship worth noting between the total number of Marin County SFH (supply), the total reported sales (demand) and the annual rate of appreciation (%). The chart below illustrates the following: Supply, since 1999, increased an average of only .38% per year; Demand (closed sales) averages 2,352 units, or 3.62% of total supply; Appreciation averaged 6.50% over the past eleven years but has decreased -.35% over the past five years.
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