January 2018 | Novato Real Estate Market Update | Pacific Union Home Sales Report

January 9, 2018 by  

January 2018 Novato Real Estate Market Update | Pacific Union Home Sales Report. Novato’s “dual-market” represents one of the best move-up opportunities we have seen in 40 years — especially for homes over $1.5 million. If you are thinking of selling your smaller home to trade up into something bigger or in a better neighborhood, now is the time. Overall inventory levels remain very tight under $1 million. There are currently just 7 such home on the MLS. Meanwhile, there are 34 homes in that price range are either in escrow or sold in December 2017. Thus, Novato has about 6 days worth of inventory at the entry level (an extraordinary sellers’ market). On the other hand, there are 10 homes on the market over $1.5 million (a fairly strong buyers’ market). So, if you want to move up, you are selling in a strong sellers’ price range and buying is a fairly strong buyers’ price range. I call that a “WIN.”video-about-novato

Novato home sales numbers in December 2017 were much stronger than anticipated with a total of 35 sales. Off-market sales continue to supplement buyer needs. Top agents rely on networking to effectuate such sales. Novato’s 35 trades sold at an average price per foot of $480 (price per foot has remained relatively static over the past 6 months yet it has slipped at the higher price points). While tax changes are expected to impact sales, it is clear more and more buyers feel the “bang for the buck” in driving an extra 10 minutes from Sir Francis Drake is worth it and Novato remains the target for price sensitive buyers.

I anticipate that Novato sales will likely increase in the new year as inventory is likely to increase in 2018. Likely impacting sales in 2018 will be the ongoing sales impacts related to the fires in Sonoma and Napa Counties and the continuation of “empty-nester” Southern Marin residents selling their multi-million dollar homes in Tiburon, Mill Valley and Ross Valley and transferring their tax base to downsized home in Novato. These very strong (often all cash) buyers often seek out 1-level, ranch style homes (or homes with the Master Bedroom downstairs with the main living areas), as well as the new / newer home communities mostly located in Southern Novato. This makes these two types of homes a hot commodity. As noted above, numerous sales are also being conducted privately by agents, outside of the MLS, via networking groups such as the Top Agent Network (TAN — Top 10% of agents) and the Marin Platinum Group (MPG — Top 100 agents). It is estimated that approximately 10-15% of homes are sold without ever hitting the market.

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The average sale price for Novato homes in December 2017 was $1,073,637. Novato (especially Southern Novato — neighborhoods such as Country Club, Pointe Marin and Hamilton Field) was unquestionably one of Marin County’s hottest markets in 2017 year due to its the good weather, easy commute and clear bang-for-your-buck.

Novato’s December 2017 home sales averaged 52 days on market (DOM), were about 2,290 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $480 per sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) is currently about 3 weeks across all price points. This is incredibly seller oriented number (especially under $1 million) reflects a continuing extraordinarily strong seller market —  balanced markets have 4-6 months of inventory.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands (note that due to increasing sales prices, I have eliminated the “under $500,000″ price band as few homes are sold for less than that amount):
■ 70% of homes priced under $750,000;
■ 67% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■ 28% of homes over $1 million.

Of the 35 Novato, CA homes that sold in December 2017:
■ 6 homes sold under $750,000;
■ 13 homes sold from $751,00 to $1 million; and
■ 17 homes sold for $1 million and up.

Single family homes in Marin Country Club Estates, Pointe Marin, Rush Creek, Hamilton Field, and Bel Marin Keys elicited the highest numbers of calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s schools or many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Top Agent (member), Marin Platinum Group (member) with Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Note: I specialize in off-market sales of luxury homes in Marin County. If you value discretion and expect high levels of professionalism and service, call me to discuss your situation.


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