Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)
January 18, 2010
“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:
- 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
- 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
- 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
- 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
- 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
- 23 homes priced under $600,000 sold in December 2009
- 17 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in December 2009
- 10 homes priced from $1 million and up sold in December 2009
The Landing at Hamilton Field, located adjacent to South Gate, is scheduled to begin pouring foundations for the model homes (there will be 3 models) in February 2010. The models are expected to open in April 2010, and the first homes will be ready for occupancy in July 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information.
Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2009 Home Sales Report)
December 15, 2009
The strong Novato, California real estate market continues on its journey into recovery. The average sales price of Novato homes in November 2009 was $620,851. These homes averaged 79 days on market, were about 2,103 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $316 per sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) has dipped to historically low levels — a scant 2.69 months worth of available inventory overall (95 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato) . A quick look at the supply and demand curve over the past 2 years is striking — supply is down by 35% and sales are up 42%. No wonder my Novato colleagues agree that it appears our 3+ year bear market in local real estate is coming to an end.
The broad based appearance of solidity in the marketplace is anchored by the low end of the market, but is also reflected in the higher end and by zip code. The chart below reflects the number of months’ inventory in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is about 3 months’ supply of homes on the market. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.
- 74% of homes priced under $500,000 (78% last month);
- 65% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (60% last month);
- 53% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (same as last month);
- 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (31% last month);
- 19% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (down from 23%);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
- 22 homes priced under $600,000 sold in November 2009
- 12 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in November 2009
- 3 homes priced from $1 million to $1.5 million sold in November 2009
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.
“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)
November 6, 2009
Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.
While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.
Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.
- 78% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 73% last month);
- 60% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (down from 66% last month — we have 5 new listings that just came on the market or this number would be higher);
- 45% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 53%);
- 31% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (about the same as last month);
- 23% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (down from 31%);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
- 26 homes priced under $600,000 sold in October 2009
- 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in October 2009
- 5 homes priced from $1 million to $1.5 million sold in October 2009
Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.
The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.
Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.
“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2009 Home Sales Report)
October 15, 2009
Entering into the dormancy season for Marin County real estate, it appears that certain “hotspots” remain — Novato is one of them. In September 2009, 35 Novato homes sold, compared with 38 sales in August 2009. The Novato real estate market derives its strength from entry level home sales. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow is much higher than the rest of Marin) because of exceptional demand based on affordability and the ongoing fantastically low interest rates.
“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part to the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Even so, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit has begun to register. Anecdotally, I can attest that many buyers are looking at the inventory of homes in Novato and acknowledging that prices in the lower price bands are level and that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $525,000 — $550,000.
- 73% of homes priced under $500,000 (down from 81% last month — due to a flood of 6 homes coming onto market in the last week);
- 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (same as last month);
- 53% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (up from 48%);
- 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 27%);
- 31% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 30%);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
- 16 homes priced under $600,000 sold in September 2009
- 15 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in September 2009
Novato homes that sold in September 2009 averaged 121 days on market, were about 2,133 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $646,389 (roughly $313 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low — 3.4 months of available inventory. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. The percentage of homes in escrow also points strongly to an extreme sellers market in the lower price bands.
Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Novato Real Estate Market Update (September 2009 Home Sales Report)
September 17, 2009
Continuing on a trend noted last month, the average sales price of Novato homes rose. In August 2009, the average price for a Novato home was $ 713,440. That is up from $632,078 in July and from $622,000 in June. While this large bump may be anomolous, the fact it follows a bump last month may prove significant. Certainly, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit may prove significant.
As a result of the above, we believe that the move-up market will continue to improve in Novato — there are clear signs of improvement in this very important market segment. As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 81% of homes priced under $500,000 (essentially the same as last month);
- 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (up from 61%);
- 48% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (up from 40%);
- 27% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
- 30% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (same as last month);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up (down from 6%).
- 17 homes priced under $600,000 sold in August 2009
- 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in August 2009
As noted above, 38 Novato homes sold in August 2009. These Novato homes averaged about 83 days on market, were about 2,360 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $713,440 (roughly $305 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
48 |
81% |
| $500K - $600K | 38 | 66% |
|
$600K - $750K |
44 |
48% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
59 |
25% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
33 |
30% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
15 |
6% |
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)
August 12, 2009
Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).
But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.
In July 2009, Novato experienced 47 sales (up from 38 in June 2009). Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed. We feel there is extraordinary pent up demand. Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes was $632,078 in July 2009 (up from $622,000 last month, excluding one off the market sale of a $2 million+ home). While a bump of just over 1% may not seem like much, its psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom may prove significant.
As a result of the above, we believe that the move-up market will continue to improve in Novato — there are clear signs of improvement in this very important market segment. As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 82% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 78%);
- 61% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (up from 57%);
- 40% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 43%);
- 27% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 25%);
- 30% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 25%);
- 6% of homes between $1.5 million and up (down from 15%).
Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling nearly as well as the entry level properties:
- 27 homes priced under $600,000 sold in July 2009
- 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in July 2009
There are 138 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 131 in July 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. This month, our absorption rate has fallen to an unbelievable 2.99 months! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Generally speaking, 6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. It is rumored that more bank owned inventory will be generated in the Fall as banks continue hiring processors and moratoriums are lifted. We will see if this comes to pass and how it affects our market.
As noted above, 47 Novato homes sold in July 2009. These Novato homes averaged about 110 days on market, were about 2,107 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $632,078 (roughly $304 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
49 |
82% |
| $500K - $600K | 36 | 61% |
|
$600K - $750K |
47 |
40% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
62 |
27% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
37 |
30% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
18 |
6% |
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Member of The Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)
July 17, 2009
The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.
Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.
Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.
We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:
- 17 homes priced under $600,000 sold in June 2009
- 17 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in June 2009.
As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 78% of homes priced under $500,000;
- 57% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
- 43% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
- 25% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
- 25% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
- 15% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
There are 131 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 141 in June 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Last month, the absorption rate fell to an unbelievable 3.04 months. Today, while up a bit to 3.45 months, it remains very low! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. Also, note below that the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has jumped up — I consider this an additional leading indicator that market forces are establishing a bottom.
As noted above, thirty-eight Novato homes sold in June 2009 (down from 44 in May 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 148 days on market, were about 2,128 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $666,124 (roughly $316 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
54 |
78% |
| $500K - $600K | 35 | 57% |
|
$600K - $750K |
43 |
44% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
51 |
25% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
32 |
25% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
20 |
15% |
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)
June 12, 2009
My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
60 |
72% |
| $500K - $600K | 31 | 48% |
|
$600K - $750K |
52 |
52% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
50 |
22% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
32 |
22% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
22 |
9% |
For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)
May 13, 2009
While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.
Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.
Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!
My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.
Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.
Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band:
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
71 |
63% |
| $500K - $600K | 33 | 51% |
|
$600K - $750K |
49 |
33% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
56 |
30% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
32 |
25% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
17 |
12% |
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.
Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2009 Home Sales Report)
April 15, 2009
While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA. (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level remains at a seasonally adjusted low with just 152 single family homes for sale. There were 142 homes for sale in March 2009. Perhaps we are on the back side of the distressed property curve. Meanwhile, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) dipped dramatically from 7.9 months in March to 6 months today (note: earlier this year, we were down to 4.5 months due to the large number of sales in December 2008). Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. More on this below.
As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.
Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has eleven active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). This number is down by almost 33% from two months ago as value shoppers are picking up these investment quality homes. In addition, the number of homes priced under $500,000 is way down — there are just 30 available as of this writing (in this price range 53% of listings are in escrow). There are a total of 99 homes under $600,000 (with, again, 53% in escrow).
As noted last month, Novato is also experiencing a surge in $1 million and up escrows. In contrast to other parts of Marin County, Novato is experiencing a 26% escrow rate for homes in the $1 million to $1.5 million price range. My prediction relating to phantom buyers is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are also down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. As anticipated, given this trend and demographic, the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is slow with just 17% of these homes in escrow.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
64 |
53% |
|
500K - $600K |
35 |
51% |
|
$600K - $750K |
43 |
35% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
52 |
17% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
34 |
26% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
11 |
18% |
Twenty-five Novato homes sold in February 2009 (up from 16 in February 2009). That is an increase in sales of 56%. Compare that the overall number of sales in Marin this year, which is down 60%. Interesting stuff. These Novato homes averaged about 97 days on market, were about 2,050 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $586,000 (roughly $292 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, three of five are in escrow and I have an outstanding offer on another. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.
For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Now that the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project has been completed for a little over a month, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
