Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novato Real Estate Market Update (March 2009 Home Sales Report)

Now that the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project has been completed for a little over a month, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato’s inventory level remains relatively low with just 142 single family homes for sale. There were 145 homes for sale in February 2009 and 150 homes for sale in January 2009–an odd downward trend. Perhaps we are on the back side of the distressed property curve. Meanwhile, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) rose again to 7.9 months (it was 4.5 months just a month ago due to the large number of sales in December). If this seems schizophrenic, it is. 

Foreclosures and short sales have become the de rigueur focus of many buyers. Investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties. Despite the inherent risks related to purchasing REO properties and, in some cases short sales, these constituted about 35% of single family home sales in Novato last year. Many neighborhoods are suffering dramatic erosion of home values. Prices are back down to what they were in 2003 in many communities. Novato currently has a dozen homes priced under $400,000 (as anyone who reads my columns knows, I call Novato Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”), down from 16 last month. Also way down is the number of homes below $500,000 — just 27 (down from about 60 last month). Of course, about half of these bargain basement homes are in escrow. There are a total of 95 homes under $600,000 (with 47% in escrow). Significantly, and this is unique to Novato right now, which is strange, the percentages of homes in escrow for $1 million-plus realm are about 23%–we are not seeing such stats at the high end in Southern Marin. As I have mentioned before, I think there are many phantom buyers out there. These are people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip are jumping in, resulting in very good sales stats at the higher end. Indeed, my last three listing sales have been all cash deals. The buy-up segment in Novato, homes priced between $750K and $1 million is slow.

Sixteen Novato homes sold in February 2009 (down from 20 in January 2009). These homes averaged about 125 days on market, were about 2,252 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $685,000 (roughly $306 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (February 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novatans are rejoicing in the completion of the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project. I have had occasion to drive during rush hour several times over the past ten days and it is fabulous. NO traffic! This will be a boon to Novato as more people recognize the complete transformation of the commute from horrible to good. Moreover, the tentative approval of the new and improved tax credit will also jolt some buyers into action [click here for my recent article on the proposed package]. As I tell my clients, ”Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato inventory is down to a mere 147 active single family homes for sale. There were 172 homes for sale in December 2008 and 150 homes for sale in January 2009. As discussed last month, Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. While the number of sales in January was lower than December 2008’s sales total, January 2009 sales were up about 30% from January 2008. Paradoxically, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) rose to 7.3 months (it was 4.5 months just a month ago due to the large number of sales in December). If this seems schizophrenic, it is. What I take from this is that sales  are way up at the low end and while the absorption rate jumped this past month, the year over year increase in the sheer number of sales over 2008 is significant.

Foreclosures and short sales have become the de rigueur focus of buyers (especially investors–who are back in the game). Despite the inherent dangers and uncertainty related to these sales they constituted 35% of single family home sales in Novato last year. Many neighborhoods are suffering dramatic erosion of home values. Prices are back down to what they were in 2003. Novato currently offers up about 16 homes priced under $400,000 (as anyone who reads my columns knows, I call Novato Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). 

The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 65–and an impressive 48% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 79 homes under $600,000 (with 43% in escrow). Significantly, and this unique to Novato right now, the percentages of homes in escrow for $1 million-plus realm are about 25%–we are not seeing such stats in Southern Marin. I think many phantom buyers (those who sold in Central and Southern Marin over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip are jumping in, resulting in very good sales stats at the higher end). 

Twenty Novato homes sold in January 2009 (up from 14 in January 2008). These homes averaged about 126 days on market, were about 2,066 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $631,000 (roughly $314 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options.  

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2009 Home Sales Report)

With just 150 active listings (there were 172 homes for sale last month), Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. This low inventory is giving rise to some unexpected numerical results. For example, because Novato sales figures are up from last month (we had 35 sales in December 2008). The resulting absorption rate for Novato single family homes is just over 4.25–this figure represents the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato. Anything under 4 months has traditionally been considered a SELLER’S MARKET. Now, I am not saying that Novato’s real estate environment is one that favors sellers, I am just pointing out an anomaly in the numbers. 

Foreclosed homes continue eroding values in many parts of town. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, sub-par conditions and unattractive terms are deterring many buyers who are instead taking the safe road and focusing on non-distressed home sales. As of this writing, Novato boasts 13 homes on the market priced under $400,000. I call Novato the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County. Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato. The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 57–and an impressive 46% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 82 single family homes priced under $600,000 (with 38% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus luxury market has continued to lure value shoppers from Southern Marin. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Thirty-five Novato homes were sold in December 2008–up 8 from November 2008. These homes averaged about 131 days on market, were about 1,945 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $594,000 (roughly $315 per sq. ft.).

Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2008 Home Sales Report)

“Unscrew the locks from the doors! Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!” Never thought Walt Whitman would appear in a real estate article? Neither did I. Yet, this past year’s real estate market in Novato evokes a poetically disjointed and disarticulated scene from Leaves of Grass. It’s been 20 years since I read the book, but I recall the broad themes carrying despair and hope within and between stanzas of its several poems. Those same themes echo metaphorically within our Novato market.

On the one hand, as prices dip back to 2003 levels for condos and entry level homes, those who bought these properties with 100% financing are often finding themselves well underwater. And those positioned to buy are now snapping up Novato’s value properties at previously unfathomable prices. By way of example, earlier today I e-mailed some clients about a Novato condo they sold  in 2006 for $420,000–it is currently a short sale priced under $200,000. Alternately, the number of Novato’s upscale homes in escrow equates with the rate of the traditionally stronger Southern Marin market. As such, Novato “contain[s] multitudes.” 

Although the number of single family homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 172 active single family home listings–there are many outstanding values out there as Sellers now understand and appreciate the need for aggressive pricing. The relatively large foreclosure inventory in Novato continues to deflate values in most neighborhoods. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, the general condition and the stringent sales requirements forced upon buyers of these homes continue to repel many buyers who refuse to be bullied or take on potentially expensive repairs. Additionally, the rock bottom pricing strategy often utilized are leading to multiple offer situations which are anathema to many buyers who have no inclination to compete.  

While 2 years ago, there may have been 2-5 homes priced under $600,000 in Novato at any given moment, there are about 10 homes in Novato priced under $400,000 right now. Unbelievable? My investor clients agree that Novato is the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County.

Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato where the stringent requirements of lenders can more easily be met as compared to the higher priced communities of Southern and Central Marin. About the same as in November 2008, we currently have 32 homes listed under $500,000 and an amazing 60% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 96 single family homes today priced under $600,000 (with 23% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus market has slowed, but still boasts a respectable 15% of homes in escrow–right in line with Novato’s southerly neighbors. 

Twenty-seven Novato homes were sold in November 2008–down by 9 from October 2008. These homes averaged about 103 days on market, were about 1,977 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $608,000 (roughly $320 per sq. ft.). Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but are not quite ready to list their home officially.

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2008 Home Sales Report)

This morning I cleaned out my gutters and cleared out my gardening beds of their Summer plantings–sure signs that Autumn is upon us. And while the summer crop produced in the garden is now long gone, many of the homes that came on the market this Summer remain available and ready to harvest. Although the number of homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 186 active listings–there are many excellent values out there.  

Sellers who have to sell in this market have really come to understand the need for aggressive pricing because of the relatively large number of foreclosures in Novato. These foreclosures can be disastrous to neighborhood values. However, because of their generally poor condition and the stringent terms required by the banks selling the homes, many buyers refuse to engage in pursuit of foreclosed homes for sale (and just about everyone is walking away from short sales). Moreover, because the banks are using pricing schemes to lure buyers into making offers, many of these so-called foreclosure “deals” are selling way above asking price. In fact, one foreclosure in Novato’s Country Club neighborhood sold last month for over 11% above asking price in an all-cash deal. 

As I have said before and I will say again, present day Novato is the Valhalla of value in Marin. Anecdotal evidence supports me–4 of my Novato listings sold last month alone. Certainly, those who cannot afford a run at the higher priced homes of Southern and Central Marin are flocking to Novato. We are also fielding lots of investor calls. Perhaps people are selling off equities and again plunging into the more bullish realm of Marin real estate? Perhaps people feel we are at bottom? Perhaps the fact that the HWY 101 project is slated to be done soon is easing concerns over the commute to San Francisco?

About the same as in October 2008, there are 33 homes currently listed under $500,000 and 51% of these are in escrow (that’s a strong lower end). There are a total of 94 homes under $600,000 currently on the market. At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s semi-luxury market ($1 million to $1.5 million price range) posted another 4 sales (29 of these homes have sold over the past 5 months). Also, note that 49% of condos on the market in Novato are in escrow (down from 53% last month). Yet, the most surprising market segment is the $600,000 to $750,000 price band with 37% of homes in escrow (up from 27% last month). This price band has been sluggish through much of the year, yet last month and this month we are seeing a lot more action.

Thirty-six Novato homes sold in October 2008–down by 10 from September 2008. These homes averaged about 113 days on market, were about 2,254 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $739,000 (roughly $336 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys seemed to generate the most calls, showings, and sales. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2008 Home Sales Report)

We had drizzle of rain last week and today is blustery and cold. Autumn is definitely sinking in. Yet, despite the apparent problems faced by many around the country, the Novato real estate market is teetering on “hot.” Buyers are focused and seemingly undeterred (especially when it comes to writing offers below asking price–sometime significantly so).

Sellers with a need to sell are embracing aggressive pricing measures as foreclosures continue sapping equity from neighboring homes. As I have said before and I will say again, Novato is the Valhalla of value in Marin. And those whose financial situations don’t support a run at the higher priced homes of Southern and Central Marin are flocking to Novato. Although interest rates are bouncing up and down on a daily basis (literally), those who can qualify for a mortgage are moving in (literally). We are definitely seeing investors moving out of the stock market and into the bullish realm of Novato real estate.

There are 34 homes under $500,000 (down by 2 from September 2008) and 43% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 86 homes under $600,000 currently on the market. At the other end of the spectrum, Novato’s resurgent semi-luxury market ($1 million to $1.5 million price range) posted another 5 sales (there have been 24 such sales over the past 4 months). Overall, an astonishing 53% of Novato condos are in escrow. But, the most surprising market segment is the $600,000 to $750,000 price band with 27% of homes in escrow. This price band has been sluggish through much of the year.

Forty-six Novato homes sold in September 2008–up by 5 from August 2008. These homes averaged about 139 days on market, sold for an average sales price of $715,000 (roughly $338 per sq./ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Rush Creek, Bel Marin keys, and San Marin continue to get robust numbers of showings and/or interest.  

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (September 2008 Home Sales Report)

Forty-one Novato homes sold in August 2008–up by 7 from July 2008. These homes averaged about 94 days on market, sold for an average sales price of $681,000 (roughly $356 per sq./ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Rush Creek, Indian Valley, and Stonetree continue to get robust numbers of showings and/or interest. In fact several of my Pointe Marin listings have sold in the past month, or so.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2008 Home Sales Report)

Thirty-four Novato homes sold in July 2008–up by 2 from June 2008, which saw 32 home sales. These homes averaged about 122 days on market, sold for an average sales price of $769,000 (roughly $370 per sq./ft.), and the average sized home was 2,171 square feet. Homes in Pointe Marin, Rush Creek, Indian Valley, and Stonetree continue to get robust numbers of showings and/or interest.

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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