September 2016 Novato Real Estate Market Update | Pacific Union International Home Sales Report

September 13, 2016

 September 2016 Novato Home Sales Report | Pacific Union International | Novato Real Estate Market Update. With the real estate market clearly in transition and the Summer lull in full effect, Novato home sales numbers in August 2016 were stronger than anticipated with a total of 42 sales (exactly the same number of home to sell last year in August 2015). August has never been considered a particularly strong month for sale closings as people are on vacation and seemingly have better things to do than buy and/or sell properties. As with most realtors in Marin County (generally) and Novato (in particular), I feel there is a clear softening in the market over and above what we might expect due to Summer. Many industry observers have commented on “The Shift” and its presence can certainly be felt in all but the new home and entry level markets (both of these market segments continue see buyer demand outstrip inventory).

Overall, in Novato, the 42 trades sold at an average price per foot of $430 (almost exactly the same as last August). Likewise, the presence of Novato’s upper tier / luxury home market (homes over $1 million) has grown considerably over the past year — in fact, I have added a new price band to my analysis focussing on homes priced over $1.5 million. Certainly, more and more buyers feel the “bang for the buck” in driving an extra 10 minutes from Sir Francis Drake is worth it. We are also seeing large numbers of longtime Marin residents selling their multimillion dollar homes in Southern Marin and transferring their tax base to new / newer homes in Novato. We also continue to find that numerous sales are conducted privately, outside of the MLS, via netorking groups such as the Top Agent Network (TAN — Top 10% of agents) and the Marin Platinum Group (MPG — Top 100 agents). Approximately 10-15% of homes are sold without ever hitting the market. Indeed, I sold several homes privately in 2016 at the request of sellers who value privacy and discretion.

Rudnick Estates at Cherry Hill, Novato | Click HERE to see Marin County’s most exciting new home community.

The average sale price for Novato homes in August 2016 was just under $875K . Novato (especially Southern Novato) has unquestionably been one of Marin County’s hottest markets this year due to the good weather, easy commute and bang-for-your-buck.

Overall, Novato real estate sales in August 2016 averaged 50 days on market, were about 2,036 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $437 per sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) is currently just under 2 months. This reflects a very tight market —  balanced markets have 6 months of inventory.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands (note that due to increasing sales prices, I have eliminated the “under $500,000″ price band as few homes are sold for less than that amount and added the “over $1.5 million” price band):
■ 52% of homes priced under $750,000;
■ 40% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■ 21% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;

■ 27% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million.

Of the 42 Novato, CA homes that sold in August 2016:
■ 16 homes sold under $750,000;
■ 17 homes sold from $751,00 to $1 million; and
■ 8 homes sold for $1 million and up.

Single family homes in Rudnick Estates (a brand new home development), Pointe Marin, Marin Country Club Estates, Rush Creek, Hamilton Field, and Bel Marin Keys elicited the highest numbers of calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s schools or many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), Top Agent (member), Marin Platinum Group (member) with Christie’s International | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Note: I specialize in off-market sales of luxury homes in Marin County . If you appreciate discretion and want the BEST result, call me to discuss your situation.

Pacific Union International | Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2015 Novato Home Sales Report)

January 11, 2015

Pacific Union International | Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2015 Novato Home Sales Report). Novato sales numbers in December 2014 were surprisingly strong considering the low number of homes for sale and the seasonal slowdown related to the holidays — 30 single family homes sold. While Novato housing market sales numbers have unquestionably softened during the second half of 2014 (the first 6 months of 2014 were very strong), buyers continue to act very decisively on many properties located in desirable neighborhoods. Of course, as always in Novato, buyers remain very price sensitive and only homes that are priced appropriately tend to sell quickly and for premiums (as we all know, overpricing a home results in sale prices below that which you would have obtained if priced correctly at the outset). Indeed, very strong contractual terms, such as short closes under 21 days, minimal investigation periods of 7 days, and discounted rent backs to sellers are becoming more common across all price points. Generally, the Novato luxury home market segment is performing well (in Novato, $1 million+ homes fall into this category). The apparent glut of active listings in this price point at the end of the year has diminshed (due to the seasonal slowdown) such that there are currently just 11 homes over $1 million actively being marketed on the MLS — of course, many of these homes are simply overpriced. Anecdotally, I am also aware of several such homes being sold off market. Such sales are not reflected in the MLS.

Rudnick Estates at Cherry Hill, Novato | Click HERE to see Marin County’s most exciting new home community.

Rudnik_Estates

The average sale price for Novato homes in December 2014 was $799K. Novato’s luxury sector (defined here as listings over $1 million) continued its impressive performance with 3 MLS sales.

Note: I specialize in off-market sales of lucury homes in Marin County (there are many reasons why sellers may prefer to sell in this fashion). If you appreciate discretion and top-flight results, call me to discuss your situation. My systems have proven successful over and over again.

Overall, Novato real estate sales in December 2014 averaged 65 days on market, were about 2,213 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $380/sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) is just over 1 month. This is an extraordinarily low absorption rate due to the scarcity of available homes — balanced markets have 6 months worth of inventory.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands (note that due to increasing sales prices, I have eliminated the “under $500,000” price band as few homes are sold for less than that amount):
■ 61% of homes priced under $750,000;
■ 29% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■ 52% of homes between $1 million and up.

Of the 49 homes that sold in December 2014:
■ 17 homes sold under $750,000;
■ 10 homes sold from $751,00 to $1 million; and
■ 3 homes sold for $1 million and up.

Single family homes in Rudnick Estates (Novato’s finest new home development), Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Marin Country Club Estates, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s schools or many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Kyle Frazier, Pacific Union Int'l

Pacific Union International | Novato Real Estate Market Update (September 2011 Novato Home Sales Report)

September 27, 2011

Novato, CA home sales continued to surpass expectations in August 2011, which is a traditionally slow month in Marin County. Buyers continue to move very quickly on well-priced and/or unique real estate opportunities. The average sales price of Novato homes has swung wildly so far this year based on the composition of sales each month — it was $626K in June 2011 and $566K in August 2011. Last month’s trades averaged 79 days on market, were about 2,023 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $288 sq. ft. Novato’s  absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) is a very low 3.16 months’ worth of available inventory overall (117 single family homes are actively for sale in Novato). The hottest component of the Novato real estate market is the entry level — homes priced under $500K — where 66% of homes are in escrow and inventory is so tight that the absorption rate is just over one month’s worth of inventory. Also, as noted in recent updates, the number of new listings introduced to the market which are either bank owned or short sales is down dramatically. This time last year (and in 2009), roughly half of the homes coming to market were distressed — if this trend continues, prices will stiffen and eventually bump up.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

■66% of homes priced under $500,000;
■43% of homes between $501,000 and $750,000;
■28% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■7% of homes between $1 million and up.

Of the 44 homes that sold in August 2011:

■14 homes were priced under $500,000;
■27 homes priced from $501,00 to $1 million; and
■3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Note: I have a pocket listing in Marin Country Club Estates with a gorgeous pool, golf cart garage, sound studio/office. This is an indoor-outdoor lifestyle home with all day sun at the pool. The property is extremely private and in the flats.

Call me for more information and a private showing.

Homes in The Landing at Hamilton Field, Breakers at Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The Landing at Hamilton Field — NEW CONSTRUCTION. Prices start in the mid – $700′s. We have three homes ready for immediate move-in. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com

Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)

August 12, 2009

Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).

But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.

In July 2009, Novato experienced 47 sales (up from 38 in June 2009). Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed. We feel there is extraordinary pent up demand. Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes was $632,078 in July 2009 (up from $622,000 last month, excluding one off the market sale of a $2 million+ home). While a bump of just over 1% may not seem like much, its psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom may prove significant.

As a result of the above, we believe that the move-up market will continue to improve in Novato — there are clear signs of improvement in this very important market segment. As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:

  • 82% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 78%);
  • 61% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (up from 57%);
  • 40% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 43%);
  • 27% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 25%);
  • 30% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 25%);
  • 6% of homes between $1.5 million and up (down from 15%).

Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling nearly as well as the entry level properties:

  • 27 homes priced under $600,000 sold in July 2009
  • 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in July 2009

There are 138 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 131 in July 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. This month, our absorption rate has fallen to an unbelievable 2.99 months! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Generally speaking, 6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. It is rumored that more bank owned inventory will be generated in the Fall as banks continue hiring processors and moratoriums are lifted. We will see if this comes to pass and how it affects our market.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

As noted above, 47 Novato homes sold in July 2009. These Novato homes averaged about 110 days on market, were about 2,107 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $632,078 (roughly $304 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band:

Price Range

Total Homes

Pending Listings

Up to $500K

49

82%

$500K – $600K 36 61%

$600K – $750K

47

40%

$750K – $1 mil.

62

27%

$1 mil. – $1.5 mil.

37

30%

$1.5 mil. & Up

18

6%

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Member of The Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”