Pacific Union Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2010 Novato Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues its solid year. We had 33 trades last month. What is impressive is the fact that average sales prices are up and average price per square foot are up. The average sales price of Novato homes in July 2010 was $692,508 (up from $644,778 the month before). These homes averaged 106 days on market, were about 2,052 sq. ft., and averaged $320 per square foot (up from $306 sq. ft. in June 2010).

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady, particularly in the entry level and move-up price bands. This is good news for buyers and sellers alike. Moreover, historically low interest rates, currently hovering around 4.5%, are giving buyers adequate impetus to make their move.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 65% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 40% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 26% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 26% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 20% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in July 2009:

• 17 homes sold under $600,000;
• 16 homes sold between $601,00 to $1 million (the Novato move-up market is hot); and
• 6 sold for at least $1 million.

NEW HOMES IN NOVATO: The 3 Model Homes at The Landing at Hamilton Field are open. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in October/November 2010.

Pricing begins in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new Southern Novato community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or, visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

If you would like to have the value of your Novato home professionally evaluated, or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (June 2010 Novato Home Sales Report)

The unabated Novato, California real estate market remains firm in all price points. In May 2010, we had 38 sales (over 60% higher than April). The average sales price of Novato homes in May 2010 again rose by about 3% to to $677,105. These homes averaged 98 days on market, were about 2,277 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $308 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for buyers and sellers alike. Moreover, historically low interest rates and added sales are giving buyers adequate impetus to make their move.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 62% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 37% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 38% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 19% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 19% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 23% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in May 2009:

• 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 22 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million (the Novato move-up market is hot); and
• 2 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES IN NOVATO: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate in Hamilton Field, are set for completion in late July. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in September 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or, visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

If you would like to have the value of your Novato home professionally evaluated, or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Marin Real Estate (May 2010)

We at Pacific Union International in Marin County, California continue to feel as though the 2010 real estate market is vastly different from that of 2009. Year over year prices seem to have leveled in most price segments and locations within Marin — some areas have even seen prices increase (albeit nominally). Countywide supply and demand figures suggest an improving real estate environment. Supply is up 7%. But the number of sales of 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes with at least 1,500 square feet and priced under $1 million,  are up an incredible 191% from April 2009.

As noted in various recent articles, much of the strength in today’s home sales market stems from the red-hot entry level market segment. As would be expected, with relatively flat inventory and more sales, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of month’s worth of inventory) continues hovering at about 3 months for entry level homes. This is very low. Attractive loan terms and a pervasive sense among buyers that we have hit bottom, is resulting in sales. While in other parts of the country the first time hoe buyer credit has fueled sales, that incentive has had a minimal impact in Marin because of the relatively low income thresholds required to qualify. Below is a chart tracking escrows — roughly one-third of homes are in escrow (and this includes ALL homes in every price band).

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). April 2010 saw 24 sales (same as February 2010). The average sales price of Novato homes in April 2010 rose over 3% to to $656,699. These homes averaged 93 days on market, were about 2,291 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $294 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for those waiting to buy.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 56% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 46% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 54% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 15% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in April 2009:

• 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 14 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 1 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, will be open in less than 60 days (Summer 2010). We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)

The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.

Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.

Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.

We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:

As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:

Marin Real Estate (June 2009)

This year has been peculiar in real estate. Obviously, prices are down in all categories. Obviously, short sales and foreclosures are featured on many buyers’ dance cards. And obviously, the market is suffering from a negative feedback loop fed by the media. I spend all day, every day, talking with prospective buyers, prospective sellers, and contemplative owners of real estate. Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing. Sure enough, since my last report, interest rates have jumped up almost a full point and the forecast does not look as though rates will fall back to the levels buyers were talking about just a short 2 months ago (let alone where they were three weeks ago). Meanwhile, it seems buyers are picking up on the FACT that rates are likely to climb and they are out in droves. 

Predictably, the low end is getting the most attention. In Novato, 72% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 44 out of 60 homes!). In San Rafael, 64% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 29 out of 45!). Incredibly, 11 homes in Novato sold last month under $400K, 9 more sold under $500K, and another 11 sold under $600K. That’s 31 Novato homes selling under $600K. Three years ago, under $600K, you would see perhaps 3 or 4 for homes on the market at any given time. These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (June 2009)

As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated June 14, 2009, click here. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (April 2009)

Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends,  click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.

[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.

For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

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