Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)

The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.

Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.

Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.

We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:

As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:

Marin Real Estate (June 2009)

This year has been peculiar in real estate. Obviously, prices are down in all categories. Obviously, short sales and foreclosures are featured on many buyers’ dance cards. And obviously, the market is suffering from a negative feedback loop fed by the media. I spend all day, every day, talking with prospective buyers, prospective sellers, and contemplative owners of real estate. Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing. Sure enough, since my last report, interest rates have jumped up almost a full point and the forecast does not look as though rates will fall back to the levels buyers were talking about just a short 2 months ago (let alone where they were three weeks ago). Meanwhile, it seems buyers are picking up on the FACT that rates are likely to climb and they are out in droves. 

Predictably, the low end is getting the most attention. In Novato, 72% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 44 out of 60 homes!). In San Rafael, 64% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 29 out of 45!). Incredibly, 11 homes in Novato sold last month under $400K, 9 more sold under $500K, and another 11 sold under $600K. That’s 31 Novato homes selling under $600K. Three years ago, under $600K, you would see perhaps 3 or 4 for homes on the market at any given time. These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (June 2009)

As noted in prior reports this year, Marin County, CA’s luxury segment is slow and currently weighted towards homes priced under $4 million. In fact, not a single home priced over $4 million sold in May 2009 and just 2 are currently in escrow (although that could change in a moment as the domino effect is very real in home sales). Of course, the luxury home slump exists throughout the country as affluent buyers wait for a signal to buy. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated June 14, 2009, click here. Yet, the news relating to home starts and permit applications is improved again this month. And while the stock market closed in the black for the year last week, this week has brought a correction. So, it appears we will continue to wait for the buying signal. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers are dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Summer er as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers).

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (April 2009)

Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends,  click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.

[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.

For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

Best Location in South Gate, Hamilton Field (Novato CA)

This is a special home with immutable qualities not found in other South Gate at Hamilton Field offerings. Most signifricantly, this gorgeous home is on the levee and has no immediate neighbor to the south — very rare.

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. The last one that did sold within a couple of weeks. This is your chance!

Great Room configuration. Kitchen with granite tile counters, dual-zone wine refrigerator, upgraded appliances, breakfast bar, and work station. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• No rear or immediate southerly nieghbors
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath with views
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling opens to Great Room
• Formal Dining Room
• Chef’s kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Dual-Zone wine refrigerator (36 bottle capacity)
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning / gas fireplace
• Media unit in Family Room with surround sound wiring
• Internet, cable, and phone throughout house
• Distressed oak flooring downstairs
• Amazing landscaping includes hand crafted rock wall and large grassy area
• Window coverings included
• Pre-wired for alarm and Cat-5 wiring installed
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches upstairs and down
• Fire suppression sprinklers throughout home
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion (southbond and northbound carpool lanes have both opened within the past two months)

• Property Address: 89 Moore Road, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $765,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2009 Home Sales Report)

South Gate – Paradise Found in Levee Home

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. This is your chance! Great Room configuration. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready.

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling
• Dining Room
• Gourmet eat-In kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning fireplace with gas starter
• Media unit in Family Room
• Internet, cable, and phone to all bedrooms
• Oak hardwood on first floor
• Dual zone central air conditioning and heat
• Uplighting on landscaping
• Plantation shutters and 2” wood blinds
• Pre-wired for alarm, Cat 5 wiring installed in all rooms
• Pre-wired audio from media center to dining room, master bedroom, 2^nd bedroom, back patio and garage
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches
• Fire sprinklers throughout home, garage and closets.
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion

• Property Address: 78 Maybeck Street, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $759,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2009 Home Sales Report)

With just 150 active listings (there were 172 homes for sale last month), Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. This low inventory is giving rise to some unexpected numerical results. For example, because Novato sales figures are up from last month (we had 35 sales in December 2008). The resulting absorption rate for Novato single family homes is just over 4.25–this figure represents the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato. Anything under 4 months has traditionally been considered a SELLER’S MARKET. Now, I am not saying that Novato’s real estate environment is one that favors sellers, I am just pointing out an anomaly in the numbers. 

Foreclosed homes continue eroding values in many parts of town. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, sub-par conditions and unattractive terms are deterring many buyers who are instead taking the safe road and focusing on non-distressed home sales. As of this writing, Novato boasts 13 homes on the market priced under $400,000. I call Novato the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County. Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato. The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 57–and an impressive 46% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 82 single family homes priced under $600,000 (with 38% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus luxury market has continued to lure value shoppers from Southern Marin. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Thirty-five Novato homes were sold in December 2008–up 8 from November 2008. These homes averaged about 131 days on market, were about 1,945 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $594,000 (roughly $315 per sq. ft.).

Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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