Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2009 Home Sales Report)
October 15, 2009
Entering into the dormancy season for Marin County real estate, it appears that certain “hotspots” remain — Novato is one of them. In September 2009, 35 Novato homes sold, compared with 38 sales in August 2009. The Novato real estate market derives its strength from entry level home sales. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow is much higher than the rest of Marin) because of exceptional demand based on affordability and the ongoing fantastically low interest rates.
“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part to the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Even so, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit has begun to register. Anecdotally, I can attest that many buyers are looking at the inventory of homes in Novato and acknowledging that prices in the lower price bands are level and that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $525,000 — $550,000.
- 73% of homes priced under $500,000 (down from 81% last month — due to a flood of 6 homes coming onto market in the last week);
- 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (same as last month);
- 53% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (up from 48%);
- 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 27%);
- 31% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 30%);
- 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
- 16 homes priced under $600,000 sold in September 2009
- 15 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in September 2009
Novato homes that sold in September 2009 averaged 121 days on market, were about 2,133 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $646,389 (roughly $313 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low — 3.4 months of available inventory. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. The percentage of homes in escrow also points strongly to an extreme sellers market in the lower price bands.
Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)
August 12, 2009
Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).
But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.
In July 2009, Novato experienced 47 sales (up from 38 in June 2009). Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed. We feel there is extraordinary pent up demand. Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes was $632,078 in July 2009 (up from $622,000 last month, excluding one off the market sale of a $2 million+ home). While a bump of just over 1% may not seem like much, its psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom may prove significant.
As a result of the above, we believe that the move-up market will continue to improve in Novato — there are clear signs of improvement in this very important market segment. As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 82% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 78%);
- 61% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (up from 57%);
- 40% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 43%);
- 27% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 25%);
- 30% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 25%);
- 6% of homes between $1.5 million and up (down from 15%).
Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling nearly as well as the entry level properties:
- 27 homes priced under $600,000 sold in July 2009
- 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in July 2009
There are 138 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 131 in July 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. This month, our absorption rate has fallen to an unbelievable 2.99 months! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Generally speaking, 6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. It is rumored that more bank owned inventory will be generated in the Fall as banks continue hiring processors and moratoriums are lifted. We will see if this comes to pass and how it affects our market.
As noted above, 47 Novato homes sold in July 2009. These Novato homes averaged about 110 days on market, were about 2,107 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $632,078 (roughly $304 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
49 |
82% |
| $500K - $600K | 36 | 61% |
|
$600K - $750K |
47 |
40% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
62 |
27% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
37 |
30% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
18 |
6% |
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Member of The Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)
July 17, 2009
The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.
Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.
Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.
We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:
- 17 homes priced under $600,000 sold in June 2009
- 17 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in June 2009.
As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 78% of homes priced under $500,000;
- 57% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
- 43% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
- 25% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
- 25% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
- 15% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
There are 131 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 141 in June 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Last month, the absorption rate fell to an unbelievable 3.04 months. Today, while up a bit to 3.45 months, it remains very low! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. Also, note below that the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has jumped up — I consider this an additional leading indicator that market forces are establishing a bottom.
As noted above, thirty-eight Novato homes sold in June 2009 (down from 44 in May 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 148 days on market, were about 2,128 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $666,124 (roughly $316 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
54 |
78% |
| $500K - $600K | 35 | 57% |
|
$600K - $750K |
43 |
44% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
51 |
25% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
32 |
25% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
20 |
15% |
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato Real Estate Market Update (February 2009 Home Sales Report)
February 10, 2009
Novatans are rejoicing in the completion of the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project. I have had occasion to drive during rush hour several times over the past ten days and it is fabulous. NO traffic! This will be a boon to Novato as more people recognize the complete transformation of the commute from horrible to good. Moreover, the tentative approval of the new and improved tax credit will also jolt some buyers into action [click here for my recent article on the proposed package]. As I tell my clients, ”Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Novato inventory is down to a mere 147 active single family homes for sale. There were 172 homes for sale in December 2008 and 150 homes for sale in January 2009. As discussed last month, Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. While the number of sales in January was lower than December 2008’s sales total, January 2009 sales were up about 30% from January 2008. Paradoxically, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) rose to 7.3 months (it was 4.5 months just a month ago due to the large number of sales in December). If this seems schizophrenic, it is. What I take from this is that sales are way up at the low end and while the absorption rate jumped this past month, the year over year increase in the sheer number of sales over 2008 is significant.
Foreclosures and short sales have become the de rigueur focus of buyers (especially investors–who are back in the game). Despite the inherent dangers and uncertainty related to these sales they constituted 35% of single family home sales in Novato last year. Many neighborhoods are suffering dramatic erosion of home values. Prices are back down to what they were in 2003. Novato currently offers up about 16 homes priced under $400,000 (as anyone who reads my columns knows, I call Novato Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”).
The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 65–and an impressive 48% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 79 homes under $600,000 (with 43% in escrow). Significantly, and this unique to Novato right now, the percentages of homes in escrow for $1 million-plus realm are about 25%–we are not seeing such stats in Southern Marin. I think many phantom buyers (those who sold in Central and Southern Marin over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip are jumping in, resulting in very good sales stats at the higher end).
Twenty Novato homes sold in January 2009 (up from 14 in January 2008). These homes averaged about 126 days on market, were about 2,066 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $631,000 (roughly $314 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
65 |
48% |
|
$500K - $600K |
26 |
31% |
|
$600K - $750K |
45 |
20% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
33 |
24% |
|
$1 mil. & Up |
43 |
26% |
For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2009 Home Sales Report)
January 10, 2009
With just 150 active listings (there were 172 homes for sale last month), Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. This low inventory is giving rise to some unexpected numerical results. For example, because Novato sales figures are up from last month (we had 35 sales in December 2008). The resulting absorption rate for Novato single family homes is just over 4.25–this figure represents the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato. Anything under 4 months has traditionally been considered a SELLER’S MARKET. Now, I am not saying that Novato’s real estate environment is one that favors sellers, I am just pointing out an anomaly in the numbers.
Foreclosed homes continue eroding values in many parts of town. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, sub-par conditions and unattractive terms are deterring many buyers who are instead taking the safe road and focusing on non-distressed home sales. As of this writing, Novato boasts 13 homes on the market priced under $400,000. I call Novato the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County. Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato. The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 57–and an impressive 46% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 82 single family homes priced under $600,000 (with 38% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus luxury market has continued to lure value shoppers from Southern Marin. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Thirty-five Novato homes were sold in December 2008–up 8 from November 2008. These homes averaged about 131 days on market, were about 1,945 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $594,000 (roughly $315 per sq. ft.).
Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
57 |
46% |
|
$500K - $600K |
25 |
20% |
|
$600K - $750K |
39 |
15% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
36 |
15% |
|
$1 mil. & Up |
66 |
14% |
For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
