Novato Real Estate Market Update (June 2010 Novato Home Sales Report)

June 16, 2010

The unabated Novato, California real estate market remains firm in all price points. In May 2010, we had 38 sales (over 60% higher than April). The average sales price of Novato homes in May 2010 again rose by about 3% to to $677,105. These homes averaged 98 days on market, were about 2,277 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $308 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for buyers and sellers alike. Moreover, historically low interest rates and added sales are giving buyers adequate impetus to make their move.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 62% of homes priced under $500,000;
  • 37% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
  • 38% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
  • 19% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
  • 19% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
  • 23% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in May 2009:

  • 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
  • 22 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million (the Novato move-up market is hot); and
  • 2 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES IN NOVATO: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate in Hamilton Field, are set for completion in late July. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in September 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or, visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

If you would like to have the value of your Novato home professionally evaluated, or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2010 Home Sales Report)

May 14, 2010

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). April 2010 saw 24 sales (same as February 2010). The average sales price of Novato homes in April 2010 rose over 3% to to $656,699. These homes averaged 93 days on market, were about 2,291 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $294 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for those waiting to buy.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 56% of homes priced under $500,000;
  • 46% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
  • 54% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
  • 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
  • 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
  • 15% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in April 2009:

  • 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
  • 14 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
  • 1 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, will be open in less than 60 days (Summer 2010). We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2010 Home Sales Report)

April 19, 2010

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). March 2010 saw 43 sales (a huge increase from February’s 24 sales and one higher than the very high December 2009 total). The average sales price of Novato homes in March 2010 rose (again) to $653,072. These homes averaged 91 days on market, were about 2,293 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $298 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered around $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices have stabilized and are holding steady (at least at the entry level). I read that one bank has announced a 95% loan to value ratio for California last week — a product that has been almost entirely absent from the market for nearly 2 years.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) shifted downwards into historically low levels for this time of year) — 3.05 months worth of available inventory overall (131 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 66% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
  • 48% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (54% last month);
  • 48% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (39% last month);
  • 32% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (28% last month);
  • 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (23% last month);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 39 homes on the market under $500,000, only 13 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

Of the homes that sold in March 2009:

  • 19 homes were priced under $600,000;
  • 21 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
  • 3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (March 2010 Home Sales Report)

March 14, 2010

The Novato, California real estate market continues to show significant strength across all price bands, except for homes priced above $1.5 million. February 2010 resulted in 24 sales. While down from December 2009’s 42 sales, this is an impressive number because of the short month, two holidays, and weather challenges presented in January and early February (after all, if people cannot go out and look at homes, they are not likely to buy one). The average sales price of Novato homes in February 2010 catapulted upwards by over 20% from January 2010 to $630,938. These homes averaged 147 days on market, were about 2,291 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $293 sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) bumped upwards slightly as a large number of homes have entered the market over the past two weeks (although we are still hovering at historically low levels for this time of year) — 4.79 months worth of available inventory overall (115 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 74% of homes priced under $500,000 (67% last month);
  • 55% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (66% last month);
  • 39% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (42% last month);
  • 28% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (33% last month);
  • 23% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (24% last month);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 38 homes on the market under $500,000, only 10 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

Of the homes that sold in February 2009:
  • 14 homes were priced under $600,000;
  • 8 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
  • 2 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 88.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in July or August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)

January 18, 2010

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

The Novato, California real estate market continues on its journey into recovery. We had 42 sales in December 2010. The average sales price of Novato homes in December 2010 was $634,152. These homes averaged 113 days on market, were about 2,227 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $293 sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) has dipped to historically low levels — a scant 2.38 months worth of available inventory overall (100 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato).

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands: 

  • 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
  • 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
  • 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
  • 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
  • 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
Importantly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are exhibiting strength:
  • 23 homes priced under $600,000 sold in December 2009
  • 17 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in December 2009
  • 10 homes priced from $1 million and up sold in December 2009
Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (priced at $842,000) went into escrow after just 10 days on the market. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The Landing at Hamilton Field, located adjacent to South Gate, is scheduled to begin pouring foundations for the model homes (there will be 3 models) in February 2010. The models are expected to open in April 2010, and the first homes will be ready for occupancy in July 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2009 Home Sales Report)

December 15, 2009

The strong Novato, California real estate market continues on its journey into recovery. The average sales price of Novato homes in November 2009 was $620,851. These homes averaged 79 days on market, were about 2,103 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $316 per sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) has dipped to historically low levels — a scant 2.69 months worth of available inventory overall (95 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato) . A quick look at the supply and demand curve over the past 2 years is striking — supply is down by 35% and sales are up 42%. No wonder my Novato colleagues agree that it appears our 3+ year bear market in local real estate is coming to an end.

The broad based appearance of solidity in the marketplace is anchored by the low end of the market, but is also reflected in the higher end and by zip code. The chart below reflects the number of months’ inventory in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is about 3 months’ supply of homes on the market. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 74% of homes priced under $500,000 (78% last month);
  • 65% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (60% last month);
  • 53% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (same as last month);
  • 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (31% last month);
  • 19% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (down from 23%);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
Importantly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are exhibiting strength:
  • 22 homes priced under $600,000 sold in November 2009
  • 12 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in November 2009
  • 3 homes priced from $1 million to $1.5 million sold in November 2009
Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, South Gate at Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)

November 6, 2009

Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 78% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 73% last month);
  • 60% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (down from 66% last month — we have 5 new listings that just came on the market or this number would be higher);
  • 45% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 53%);
  • 31% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (about the same as last month);
  • 23% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (down from 31%);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
Importantly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level properties:
  • 26 homes priced under $600,000 sold in October 2009
  • 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in October 2009
  • 5 homes priced from $1 million to $1.5 million sold in October 2009
In fact, more homes sold in October 2009 in the $1 million to $1.5 million price band in Novato than sold in Mill Valley in that same price band. I have been saying for years that the Novato luxury market is on the rise and we are seeing tangible sales figures support my predictions. This trend also coincides with the extraordinary high percentages of homes in escrow. Meanwhile, inventory continues to shrink with just 117 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.

The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Best Location in South Gate at Hamilton Field (Novato, California)

October 30, 2009

(In Escrow 1/16/10) This is a special home with immutable qualities not found in other South Gate at Hamilton Field listings. Most signifricantly, this gorgeous home is sited adjacent to the wetlands restoration project and has no immediate neighbor to the east or north. Even the neighbor to the west is set back — a very rare combination. Located at 94 Maybeck Street, this home features 5 bedrooms and 3 baths (with a bed and bath downstairs), a chef’s kitchen, and a large yard with lots of grass and tasteful landscaping.

Live and thrive in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most rarely available location (a corner lot on the wetlands). Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. This is your chance!

Great Room configuration. Kitchen with granite counters, chef’s island, breakfast bar, and work station. The potential for four spacious bedrooms upstairs (note that one room, which is very big, does not have a closet) and 3 Baths. Downstairs also has a bedroom and full bathroom. Dining Room with vaulted ceilings, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. The luxurious Master Suite provides views across the Bayside open space and watershed.

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

  • Contemporary home on the levee, set back from the street
  • No rear or immediate northern neighbors
  • 5 Bedrooms, 3 Baths, 2-car attached garage
  • Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath
  • Formal Dining Room with vaulted ceiling opens to Living Room
  • Chef’s kitchen with island, ample storage space, and granite counters, 5-burner gas range, built-in microwave, breakfast nook and work station, and pantry
  • Utility/Laundry Room
  • Fabulous views toward The Bay from upstairs
  • Gorgeous landscaping with large grassy areas in the front, side, and back yards and mature trees
  • Vegetable garden patch
  • Fireplace with slate surround and custom mantle
  • Media center built-ins in Family Room
  • Wired for internet, cable, and phone
  • Fire suppression sprinklers throughout home
  • Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
  • Backs to open space with direct access to the proposed Bay Trail
  • Close to all Hamilton amenities: South Gate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts, Hamilton Landing businesses, Hamilton Marketplace, skateboard park, and Gymnasium
  • Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Marketplace including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill, La Boulange, Pasta Moto, and Toast
  • Enjoy the quick Southern Novato commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project completed (southbond and northbound carpool lanes both opened)

  • Property Address: 94 Maybeck Street Road, Novato, CA 94949
  • Listing Price: $842,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate, Novato home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440.

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2009 Home Sales Report)

October 15, 2009

Entering into the dormancy season for Marin County real estate, it appears that certain “hotspots” remain — Novato is one of them. In September 2009, 35 Novato homes sold, compared with 38 sales in August 2009. The Novato real estate market derives its strength from entry level home sales. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow is much higher than the rest of Marin) because of exceptional demand based on affordability and the ongoing fantastically low interest rates.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part to the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Even so, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit has begun to register. Anecdotally, I can attest that many buyers are looking at the inventory of homes in Novato and acknowledging that prices in the lower price bands are level and that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $525,000 — $550,000.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

  • 73% of homes priced under $500,000 (down from 81% last month — due to a flood of 6 homes coming onto market in the last week);
  • 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (same as last month);
  • 53% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (up from 48%);
  • 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 27%);
  • 31% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 30%);
  • 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.
Importantly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level properties:
  • 16 homes priced under $600,000 sold in September 2009
  • 15 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in September 2009
This trend also coincides with the extraordinary high percentages of homes in escrow. Meanwhile, inventory continues to shrink with just 120 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA. Compare this with Mill Valley which has 119 homes actively on the market, yet Mill Valley has about one-quarter the population size of Novato.

Real Estate Market Chart by Altos Research www.altosresearch.com

Novato homes that sold in September 2009 averaged 121 days on market, were about 2,133 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $646,389 (roughly $313 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low — 3.4 months of available inventory. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. The percentage of homes in escrow also points strongly to an extreme sellers market in the lower price bands.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Marin Real Estate (August 2009)

September 10, 2009

Marin real estate has, it appears, survived the worst of the downturn. While prices are down across the board no matter how you slice it, the road to recovery is in view. Yet, virtually every call I get from potential buyers, at some point in the conversation, eventually turns to short sales and foreclosures — distressed sales remain featured on many buyers’ dance cards. In fact, distressed sales are very competitive and often receive multiple offers. In Northern Marin (a.k.a Novato), 82% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 40 out of 49 homes!). In San Rafael, 84% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 32 out of 38!). These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing (most believe this will occur by the end of Q1 2010). Sure enough, it seems buyers are picking up on this inevitability and they are out in droves.

Standing back and looking at the higher price bands (especially in Southern Marin), things look a little different. Some sellers still suffer from pricing strategies that prevent them from realistically engaging with qualified buyers. These sellers are either: 1) NOT Sellers; or 2) are getting poor advice and direction from their agents. They will learn that “time on the market” is not their friend. Being a “smart seller” today means negotiating strong terms aimed towards a successful close of escrow within 30-45 days.
The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is about equal to 2008. If you would like to review a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know.
[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

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