Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)

Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).

But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)

The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.

Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.

Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.

We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:

As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:

Marin Real Estate (April 2009)

March 2009 new escrows up 17% from March 2008 (and 58% from February 2009) – In Marin County our most reliable indicator of changing market conditions is new escrow activity. New escrow activity bottomed out in December 2008 and began a modest ascent through January and February 2009. I believe the sharp increase in new escrows in March 2009 is a combination of demand returning to our market and the cyclical nature of the business. It stands to reason that thought is that April and May closings will rise accordingly.

Another interesting trend is the surge of activity in central and southern Marin. In the first half of 2008, nearly 60% of the units sold were in central and southern Marin. By January 2009, largely a result of the October 2008 stock market meltdown, this activity gradually fell to 37% of the units sold in Marin. In February and March 2009 the percentage rebounded to nearly 50% of the county’s activity.This upbeat trend in central and southern Marin is consistent with the activity in my business and a solid sign of strengthening buyer confidence. We expect a strengthening Spring season in Marin County real estate.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.

For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Best Location in South Gate, Hamilton Field (Novato CA)

This is a special home with immutable qualities not found in other South Gate at Hamilton Field offerings. Most signifricantly, this gorgeous home is on the levee and has no immediate neighbor to the south — very rare.

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. The last one that did sold within a couple of weeks. This is your chance!

Great Room configuration. Kitchen with granite tile counters, dual-zone wine refrigerator, upgraded appliances, breakfast bar, and work station. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• No rear or immediate southerly nieghbors
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath with views
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling opens to Great Room
• Formal Dining Room
• Chef’s kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Dual-Zone wine refrigerator (36 bottle capacity)
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning / gas fireplace
• Media unit in Family Room with surround sound wiring
• Internet, cable, and phone throughout house
• Distressed oak flooring downstairs
• Amazing landscaping includes hand crafted rock wall and large grassy area
• Window coverings included
• Pre-wired for alarm and Cat-5 wiring installed
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches upstairs and down
• Fire suppression sprinklers throughout home
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion (southbond and northbound carpool lanes have both opened within the past two months)

• Property Address: 89 Moore Road, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $765,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Marin Real Estate (March 2009)

Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to “normal” years (I hesitate to call 2009 a “normal” year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We’ll see if the real estate market responds.

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels.

[Click here for the rest of the report, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com.]

South Gate - Paradise Found in Levee Home

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. This is your chance! Great Room configuration. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready.

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling
• Dining Room
• Gourmet eat-In kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning fireplace with gas starter
• Media unit in Family Room
• Internet, cable, and phone to all bedrooms
• Oak hardwood on first floor
• Dual zone central air conditioning and heat
• Uplighting on landscaping
• Plantation shutters and 2” wood blinds
• Pre-wired for alarm, Cat 5 wiring installed in all rooms
• Pre-wired audio from media center to dining room, master bedroom, 2^nd bedroom, back patio and garage
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches
• Fire sprinklers throughout home, garage and closets.
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion

• Property Address: 78 Maybeck Street, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $759,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Novato Real Estate Market Update (February 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novatans are rejoicing in the completion of the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project. I have had occasion to drive during rush hour several times over the past ten days and it is fabulous. NO traffic! This will be a boon to Novato as more people recognize the complete transformation of the commute from horrible to good. Moreover, the tentative approval of the new and improved tax credit will also jolt some buyers into action [click here for my recent article on the proposed package]. As I tell my clients, ”Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato inventory is down to a mere 147 active single family homes for sale. There were 172 homes for sale in December 2008 and 150 homes for sale in January 2009. As discussed last month, Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. While the number of sales in January was lower than December 2008’s sales total, January 2009 sales were up about 30% from January 2008. Paradoxically, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) rose to 7.3 months (it was 4.5 months just a month ago due to the large number of sales in December). If this seems schizophrenic, it is. What I take from this is that sales  are way up at the low end and while the absorption rate jumped this past month, the year over year increase in the sheer number of sales over 2008 is significant.

Foreclosures and short sales have become the de rigueur focus of buyers (especially investors–who are back in the game). Despite the inherent dangers and uncertainty related to these sales they constituted 35% of single family home sales in Novato last year. Many neighborhoods are suffering dramatic erosion of home values. Prices are back down to what they were in 2003. Novato currently offers up about 16 homes priced under $400,000 (as anyone who reads my columns knows, I call Novato Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). 

The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 65–and an impressive 48% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 79 homes under $600,000 (with 43% in escrow). Significantly, and this unique to Novato right now, the percentages of homes in escrow for $1 million-plus realm are about 25%–we are not seeing such stats in Southern Marin. I think many phantom buyers (those who sold in Central and Southern Marin over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip are jumping in, resulting in very good sales stats at the higher end). 

Twenty Novato homes sold in January 2009 (up from 14 in January 2008). These homes averaged about 126 days on market, were about 2,066 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $631,000 (roughly $314 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options.  

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Marin Luxury Homes (December 2008)

[...] There are 85 homes on the market between $2 million and $4 million. As predicted in last month’s update, November sales slowed significantly following the mid-September meltdown in the financial sector–there were only 5 sales (down from 19 in October). Each of the following cities or towns had one sale: Mill Valley, San Rafael, Tiburon, Belvedere, and Kentfield. The average days on market for the homes that sold was 80 days and the average sales price was just over $2.58 million (roughly $849 per square foot), with an average of 3,209 square feet. Belvedere and Tiburon have 5 and 3 homes, respectively, currently in escrow. 

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2008 Home Sales Report)

“Unscrew the locks from the doors! Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!” Never thought Walt Whitman would appear in a real estate article? Neither did I. Yet, this past year’s real estate market in Novato evokes a poetically disjointed and disarticulated scene from Leaves of Grass. It’s been 20 years since I read the book, but I recall the broad themes carrying despair and hope within and between stanzas of its several poems. Those same themes echo metaphorically within our Novato market.

On the one hand, as prices dip back to 2003 levels for condos and entry level homes, those who bought these properties with 100% financing are often finding themselves well underwater. And those positioned to buy are now snapping up Novato’s value properties at previously unfathomable prices. By way of example, earlier today I e-mailed some clients about a Novato condo they sold  in 2006 for $420,000–it is currently a short sale priced under $200,000. Alternately, the number of Novato’s upscale homes in escrow equates with the rate of the traditionally stronger Southern Marin market. As such, Novato “contain[s] multitudes.” 

Although the number of single family homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 172 active single family home listings–there are many outstanding values out there as Sellers now understand and appreciate the need for aggressive pricing. The relatively large foreclosure inventory in Novato continues to deflate values in most neighborhoods. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, the general condition and the stringent sales requirements forced upon buyers of these homes continue to repel many buyers who refuse to be bullied or take on potentially expensive repairs. Additionally, the rock bottom pricing strategy often utilized are leading to multiple offer situations which are anathema to many buyers who have no inclination to compete.  

While 2 years ago, there may have been 2-5 homes priced under $600,000 in Novato at any given moment, there are about 10 homes in Novato priced under $400,000 right now. Unbelievable? My investor clients agree that Novato is the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County.

Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato where the stringent requirements of lenders can more easily be met as compared to the higher priced communities of Southern and Central Marin. About the same as in November 2008, we currently have 32 homes listed under $500,000 and an amazing 60% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 96 single family homes today priced under $600,000 (with 23% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus market has slowed, but still boasts a respectable 15% of homes in escrow–right in line with Novato’s southerly neighbors. 

Twenty-seven Novato homes were sold in November 2008–down by 9 from October 2008. These homes averaged about 103 days on market, were about 1,977 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $608,000 (roughly $320 per sq. ft.). Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but are not quite ready to list their home officially.

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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