Marin Real Estate (June 2009)

This year has been peculiar in real estate. Obviously, prices are down in all categories. Obviously, short sales and foreclosures are featured on many buyers’ dance cards. And obviously, the market is suffering from a negative feedback loop fed by the media. I spend all day, every day, talking with prospective buyers, prospective sellers, and contemplative owners of real estate. Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing. Sure enough, since my last report, interest rates have jumped up almost a full point and the forecast does not look as though rates will fall back to the levels buyers were talking about just a short 2 months ago (let alone where they were three weeks ago). Meanwhile, it seems buyers are picking up on the FACT that rates are likely to climb and they are out in droves. 

Predictably, the low end is getting the most attention. In Novato, 72% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 44 out of 60 homes!). In San Rafael, 64% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 29 out of 45!). Incredibly, 11 homes in Novato sold last month under $400K, 9 more sold under $500K, and another 11 sold under $600K. That’s 31 Novato homes selling under $600K. Three years ago, under $600K, you would see perhaps 3 or 4 for homes on the market at any given time. These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.

For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”