Novato Real Estate Market Update (June 2010 Novato Home Sales Report)

The unabated Novato, California real estate market remains firm in all price points. In May 2010, we had 38 sales (over 60% higher than April). The average sales price of Novato homes in May 2010 again rose by about 3% to to $677,105. These homes averaged 98 days on market, were about 2,277 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $308 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for buyers and sellers alike. Moreover, historically low interest rates and added sales are giving buyers adequate impetus to make their move.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 62% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 37% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 38% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 19% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 19% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 23% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in May 2009:

• 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 22 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million (the Novato move-up market is hot); and
• 2 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES IN NOVATO: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate in Hamilton Field, are set for completion in late July. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in September 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or, visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

If you would like to have the value of your Novato home professionally evaluated, or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Marin Real Estate (May 2010)

We at Pacific Union International in Marin County, California continue to feel as though the 2010 real estate market is vastly different from that of 2009. Year over year prices seem to have leveled in most price segments and locations within Marin — some areas have even seen prices increase (albeit nominally). Countywide supply and demand figures suggest an improving real estate environment. Supply is up 7%. But the number of sales of 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes with at least 1,500 square feet and priced under $1 million,  are up an incredible 191% from April 2009.

As noted in various recent articles, much of the strength in today’s home sales market stems from the red-hot entry level market segment. As would be expected, with relatively flat inventory and more sales, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of month’s worth of inventory) continues hovering at about 3 months for entry level homes. This is very low. Attractive loan terms and a pervasive sense among buyers that we have hit bottom, is resulting in sales. While in other parts of the country the first time hoe buyer credit has fueled sales, that incentive has had a minimal impact in Marin because of the relatively low income thresholds required to qualify. Below is a chart tracking escrows — roughly one-third of homes are in escrow (and this includes ALL homes in every price band).

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). April 2010 saw 24 sales (same as February 2010). The average sales price of Novato homes in April 2010 rose over 3% to to $656,699. These homes averaged 93 days on market, were about 2,291 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $294 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered between 3-5% of $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices are holding steady. This is good news for those waiting to buy.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 56% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 46% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 54% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 34% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 15% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the Novato homes that sold in April 2009:

• 9 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 14 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 1 priced from $1 million and up.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, will be open in less than 60 days (Summer 2010). We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Postscript: Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)

Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.

The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (September 2009 Home Sales Report)

Marin Real Estate (August 2009)

Marin real estate has, it appears, survived the worst of the downturn. While prices are down across the board no matter how you slice it, the road to recovery is in view. Yet, virtually every call I get from potential buyers, at some point in the conversation, eventually turns to short sales and foreclosures — distressed sales remain featured on many buyers’ dance cards. In fact, distressed sales are very competitive and often receive multiple offers. In Northern Marin (a.k.a Novato), 82% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 40 out of 49 homes!). In San Rafael, 84% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 32 out of 38!). These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing (most believe this will occur by the end of Q1 2010). Sure enough, it seems buyers are picking up on this inevitability and they are out in droves.

Marin Real Estate (July 2009)

The Marin County, CA real estate market is a mixed bag. Recent escrow activity levels have been refreshing, if not invigorating. New escrows generated in April – June 2009 represent the three best months since June ’07. This progress seems to be continuing. In fact, we could experience the busiest summer in MarinCounty real estate in recent years.

This increase in activity (not price appreciation) follows the slowest six month stretch we have seen in sixteen years. Closings of Marin County single family homes in the 4th quarter of 2008 (457) was the lowest since 1994. Closings in 1st quarter 2009 (222) and 2nd quarter ’09 (421) both set the sixteen year low as well. We feel this recent rally is a reflection of increasing consumer confidence either as a result of, or in combination with, the stock market rebound which began in March 2009. And just when Wall Street looked as though significant further downward movement was in the cards (after a month of week over week declines from mid-June to early July), last week’s results erased all losses from the past month as quarlterly earnings reports have been coming in higher than expected.

On a year-over-year basis, pricing of single family homes in Marin County is a completely different comparison. Depending on your neighborhood, the value of your home could be off 15% - 50% from its peak. As I have documented in previous newsletters, Marin County real estate was impacted by two financial events. Beginning in August 2007, the northern part of the county (Novato and areas of San Rafael) suffered from the sub-prime lending crisis. The activity level in Central and Southern Marin was nearly frozen from October 2008 thru mid-March 2009 — a result of the stock market meltdown.

Today, it appears that our housing recovery will be driven by an increase in units sold. Today’s buyers are driven by value and opportunity. Sellers clinging to what they recently paid for a home or what they “need to sell it for” seem to be grasping at “hope” and have become frustrated in a buyers’ market where days on the market produces diminishing returns.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (August 2009)

Marin County, CA’s luxury real estate market segment continues to take shape in the aftermath of the equities meltdown of Fall 2008. In our New Economy, buyers are placing emphasis on prestige locations, sweeping views, grand appointments, compelling “estate history,” and impressive scale. The luxury market in Marin remains weighted towards homes priced under $4 million, although we did have 3 sales of homes priced over $4 million in July 2009. The number of sales in July 2009 is off by 74% from July 2008. The news is not all negative, however, as we had several significant properties trade last month and another 30 luxury homes are currently in escrow. For a detailed snapshot of current national trends from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing dated August 2, 2009, click here. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call me at (415) 350-9440.

Buyers remain dubious of price stability for good reason (see chart below reflecting year over year median asking prices in Tiburon, Mill Valley, and Kentfield). But, increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board should help sales moving forward into the Fall as buyers with 25% down will obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of $1.6 million. While not necessarily “Luxury” territory here in Marin (although declining prices are putting some very nice homes into the sub-$2 million price bands), a sizable segment of buyers of luxury homes must sell their current homes first (80% of buyers are sellers). The chart below indicates that across the trend in Marin’s luxury segment is for lower prices — 10-25% lower than last year in Mill Valley, Belvedere, and Kentfield.

The year over year inventory levels in Mill Valley have hovered at around 20% since May 2009 (much improved from a nearly 60% inventory increase in February 2009). Meanwhile, inventory in Kentfield has rocketed nearly 90% higher this year compared with last year. In combination, Tiburon and Belvedere inventory levels are about 70% higher than last year. Prediction: Kentfield and Tiburon / Belvedere prices will continue to recede through Q4 2009. Indeed, we can see that trend has set in dramatically in the above chart which tracks asking prices of homes currently for sale.

[For the rest of this report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com, click HERE.]

Marin Real Estate (May 2009)

The leading indicator of future sales is the number of homes in escrow at a given time. We have experienced over 60 new escrows in five of the past seven weeks and over 70 for the past three weeks. May 2009 new escrows will likely surpass the levels of April and May 2008. As you can see from the below chart (which goes back 6 months), the number of escrow is up 105% and sales are up 30%. 

The upsurge in sales and escrows is seasonal, but also due to low 5% interest rates on conforming loans right now. We are also seeing a spike in home sales at the low end due to the increased FHA loan limit (now at $729,750). Given the activity we are seeing, it seems likely that the traditional Summer slowdown in home sales will be modest as buyers continue pursuing those “value” properties through the Summer. This year is shaping up to be one defined by “value.”

[Click HERE for the rest of article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Marin Luxury Report (April 2009)

Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends,  click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.

[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Next Page »