Pacific Union International | Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2012 Novato Home Sales Report)

December 2011, like November, exceeded all expectations in terms of Novato, CA real estate sales (we had 35). Obviously, December is traditionally a slow month (usually, December and January are terribly unexciting) for closings in Novato and all of Marin County. This year’s unseasonably warm weather and complete lack of rain kept buyers engaged well into January. As has been the case for the past quarter, buyers continue to move very quickly on well-priced and/or unique real estate opportunities. As with other Marin towns along the HWY 101 corridor, the average sales price of Novato homes has swung wildly this year from month to month. For example, the average sale price in June was $626K in October, $530K in September, and $588K in December 2012. December’s trades averaged 109 days on market, were about 2,273 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $267 sq. ft. Novato’s  absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) continues to hover in historically low territory with a shockingly low 2 months’ worth of available inventory overall (a mere 70 single family homes are actively for sale in Novato). The hottest component of the Novato real estate market (as always) is the entry and move-up levels — homes priced under $750K — where ~60% of homes are in escrow and inventory is so tight that the absorption rate is less than 2 month’s worth of inventory.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

■54% of homes priced under $500,000;
■52% of homes between $501,000 and $750,000;
■32% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
■18% of homes between $1 million and up.

Of the 35 homes that sold in December 2011:

■17 homes were priced under $500,000;
■15 homes priced from $501,00 to $1 million; and
■3 home priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in The Landing at Hamilton Field, Breakers at Pointe Marin, Marin Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at             (415) 350-9440      . My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The Landing at Hamilton Field — NEW CONSTRUCTION. Prices start in the mid – $700′s. With several recent closings, we only have two more new homes currently available. Please call me at            (415) 350-9440       for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2010)

Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). March 2010 saw 43 sales (a huge increase from February’s 24 sales and one higher than the very high December 2009 total). The average sales price of Novato homes in March 2010 rose (again) to $653,072. These homes averaged 91 days on market, were about 2,293 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $298 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered around $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices have stabilized and are holding steady (at least at the entry level). I read that one bank has announced a 95% loan to value ratio for California last week — a product that has been almost entirely absent from the market for nearly 2 years.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) shifted downwards into historically low levels for this time of year) — 3.05 months worth of available inventory overall (131 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 66% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 48% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (54% last month);
• 48% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (39% last month);
• 32% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (28% last month);
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (23% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 39 homes on the market under $500,000, only 13 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

Of the homes that sold in March 2009:

• 19 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 21 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)

• 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
• 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
• 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
• 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)

Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.

The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2009 Home Sales Report)

With just 150 active listings (there were 172 homes for sale last month), Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. This low inventory is giving rise to some unexpected numerical results. For example, because Novato sales figures are up from last month (we had 35 sales in December 2008). The resulting absorption rate for Novato single family homes is just over 4.25–this figure represents the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato. Anything under 4 months has traditionally been considered a SELLER’S MARKET. Now, I am not saying that Novato’s real estate environment is one that favors sellers, I am just pointing out an anomaly in the numbers. 

Foreclosed homes continue eroding values in many parts of town. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, sub-par conditions and unattractive terms are deterring many buyers who are instead taking the safe road and focusing on non-distressed home sales. As of this writing, Novato boasts 13 homes on the market priced under $400,000. I call Novato the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County. Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato. The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 57–and an impressive 46% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 82 single family homes priced under $600,000 (with 38% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus luxury market has continued to lure value shoppers from Southern Marin. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Thirty-five Novato homes were sold in December 2008–up 8 from November 2008. These homes averaged about 131 days on market, were about 1,945 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $594,000 (roughly $315 per sq. ft.).

Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2008 Home Sales Report)

“Unscrew the locks from the doors! Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!” Never thought Walt Whitman would appear in a real estate article? Neither did I. Yet, this past year’s real estate market in Novato evokes a poetically disjointed and disarticulated scene from Leaves of Grass. It’s been 20 years since I read the book, but I recall the broad themes carrying despair and hope within and between stanzas of its several poems. Those same themes echo metaphorically within our Novato market.

On the one hand, as prices dip back to 2003 levels for condos and entry level homes, those who bought these properties with 100% financing are often finding themselves well underwater. And those positioned to buy are now snapping up Novato’s value properties at previously unfathomable prices. By way of example, earlier today I e-mailed some clients about a Novato condo they sold  in 2006 for $420,000–it is currently a short sale priced under $200,000. Alternately, the number of Novato’s upscale homes in escrow equates with the rate of the traditionally stronger Southern Marin market. As such, Novato “contain[s] multitudes.” 

Although the number of single family homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 172 active single family home listings–there are many outstanding values out there as Sellers now understand and appreciate the need for aggressive pricing. The relatively large foreclosure inventory in Novato continues to deflate values in most neighborhoods. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, the general condition and the stringent sales requirements forced upon buyers of these homes continue to repel many buyers who refuse to be bullied or take on potentially expensive repairs. Additionally, the rock bottom pricing strategy often utilized are leading to multiple offer situations which are anathema to many buyers who have no inclination to compete.  

While 2 years ago, there may have been 2-5 homes priced under $600,000 in Novato at any given moment, there are about 10 homes in Novato priced under $400,000 right now. Unbelievable? My investor clients agree that Novato is the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County.

Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato where the stringent requirements of lenders can more easily be met as compared to the higher priced communities of Southern and Central Marin. About the same as in November 2008, we currently have 32 homes listed under $500,000 and an amazing 60% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 96 single family homes today priced under $600,000 (with 23% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus market has slowed, but still boasts a respectable 15% of homes in escrow–right in line with Novato’s southerly neighbors. 

Twenty-seven Novato homes were sold in November 2008–down by 9 from October 2008. These homes averaged about 103 days on market, were about 1,977 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $608,000 (roughly $320 per sq. ft.). Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but are not quite ready to list their home officially.

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2008 Home Sales Report)

This morning I cleaned out my gutters and cleared out my gardening beds of their Summer plantings–sure signs that Autumn is upon us. And while the summer crop produced in the garden is now long gone, many of the homes that came on the market this Summer remain available and ready to harvest. Although the number of homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 186 active listings–there are many excellent values out there.  

Sellers who have to sell in this market have really come to understand the need for aggressive pricing because of the relatively large number of foreclosures in Novato. These foreclosures can be disastrous to neighborhood values. However, because of their generally poor condition and the stringent terms required by the banks selling the homes, many buyers refuse to engage in pursuit of foreclosed homes for sale (and just about everyone is walking away from short sales). Moreover, because the banks are using pricing schemes to lure buyers into making offers, many of these so-called foreclosure “deals” are selling way above asking price. In fact, one foreclosure in Novato’s Country Club neighborhood sold last month for over 11% above asking price in an all-cash deal. 

As I have said before and I will say again, present day Novato is the Valhalla of value in Marin. Anecdotal evidence supports me–4 of my Novato listings sold last month alone. Certainly, those who cannot afford a run at the higher priced homes of Southern and Central Marin are flocking to Novato. We are also fielding lots of investor calls. Perhaps people are selling off equities and again plunging into the more bullish realm of Marin real estate? Perhaps people feel we are at bottom? Perhaps the fact that the HWY 101 project is slated to be done soon is easing concerns over the commute to San Francisco?

About the same as in October 2008, there are 33 homes currently listed under $500,000 and 51% of these are in escrow (that’s a strong lower end). There are a total of 94 homes under $600,000 currently on the market. At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s semi-luxury market ($1 million to $1.5 million price range) posted another 4 sales (29 of these homes have sold over the past 5 months). Also, note that 49% of condos on the market in Novato are in escrow (down from 53% last month). Yet, the most surprising market segment is the $600,000 to $750,000 price band with 37% of homes in escrow (up from 27% last month). This price band has been sluggish through much of the year, yet last month and this month we are seeing a lot more action.

Thirty-six Novato homes sold in October 2008–down by 10 from September 2008. These homes averaged about 113 days on market, were about 2,254 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $739,000 (roughly $336 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys seemed to generate the most calls, showings, and sales. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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