Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)
August 12, 2009
Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).
But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.
In July 2009, Novato experienced 47 sales (up from 38 in June 2009). Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed. We feel there is extraordinary pent up demand. Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes was $632,078 in July 2009 (up from $622,000 last month, excluding one off the market sale of a $2 million+ home). While a bump of just over 1% may not seem like much, its psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom may prove significant.
As a result of the above, we believe that the move-up market will continue to improve in Novato — there are clear signs of improvement in this very important market segment. As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:
- 82% of homes priced under $500,000 (up from 78%);
- 61% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (up from 57%);
- 40% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (down from 43%);
- 27% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (up from 25%);
- 30% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (up from 25%);
- 6% of homes between $1.5 million and up (down from 15%).
Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling nearly as well as the entry level properties:
- 27 homes priced under $600,000 sold in July 2009
- 16 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million sold in July 2009
There are 138 single family homes currently for sale in Novato, CA (there were 131 in July 2009). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. This month, our absorption rate has fallen to an unbelievable 2.99 months! Absorption rates, along with days on market averages, provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Generally speaking, 6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. And today’s shrinking inventory and exploding sales evidence a pent up demand and reflect the increased affordability of Novato real estate. It is rumored that more bank owned inventory will be generated in the Fall as banks continue hiring processors and moratoriums are lifted. We will see if this comes to pass and how it affects our market.
As noted above, 47 Novato homes sold in July 2009. These Novato homes averaged about 110 days on market, were about 2,107 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $632,078 (roughly $304 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many calls regarding lease-options.
|
Price Range |
Total Homes |
Pending Listings |
|
Up to $500K |
49 |
82% |
| $500K - $600K | 36 | 61% |
|
$600K - $750K |
47 |
40% |
|
$750K - $1 mil. |
62 |
27% |
|
$1 mil. - $1.5 mil. |
37 |
30% |
|
$1.5 mil. & Up |
18 |
6% |
If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and Member of The Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.
Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a preferable choice for those who want more house for the money, yet were scared off the traffic we experienced during the highway construction period. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”
Marin Real Estate (June 2009)
July 10, 2009
This year has been peculiar in real estate. Obviously, prices are down in all categories. Obviously, short sales and foreclosures are featured on many buyers’ dance cards. And obviously, the market is suffering from a negative feedback loop fed by the media. I spend all day, every day, talking with prospective buyers, prospective sellers, and contemplative owners of real estate. Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing. Sure enough, since my last report, interest rates have jumped up almost a full point and the forecast does not look as though rates will fall back to the levels buyers were talking about just a short 2 months ago (let alone where they were three weeks ago). Meanwhile, it seems buyers are picking up on the FACT that rates are likely to climb and they are out in droves.
Predictably, the low end is getting the most attention. In Novato, 72% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 44 out of 60 homes!). In San Rafael, 64% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 29 out of 45!). Incredibly, 11 homes in Novato sold last month under $400K, 9 more sold under $500K, and another 11 sold under $600K. That’s 31 Novato homes selling under $600K. Three years ago, under $600K, you would see perhaps 3 or 4 for homes on the market at any given time. These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.
[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]
Hamilton Landing and Hamilton Marketplace Win Awards
December 18, 2008
Projects associated with Novato’s Hamilton Field continue to rack-up recognition — Hamilton Landing (a robust business hub now occupying the former hangers (circa 1930) of the Hamilton military base) and Hamilton Marketplace (a diverse new shopping center with a mega-deluxe-Safeway (and associated gas station), Peet’s, Starbucks, Jamba Juice, banking, restaurants (still to come), pet supplies, and more) were named “Top Projects in the North Bay” by the North Bay Business Journal. Both feature unique architecture and green building elements. Hamilton Marketplace also incorporated solar power.
[Click here for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.MarinCRS.com.]
Horse Lovers Welcome
November 24, 2008
Novato (located in Northern Marin County, California) is one of the few locations within the Bay Area (and within 30 minutes of San Francisco) where equestrians can roam with relative ease. Indeed, if you spend any time hiking or driving through Novato’s Wild Horse Valley, Mt. Burdell open space, Atherton Corridor, or Pleasant Valley, you are highly likely to encounter horses and their riders enjoying the laid back atmosphere. There are also numerous boarding, instructional, and leisurely riding facilities in Novato. There is even a horseman association (Novato Horseman, Inc.) with several hundred members, which engage in trail rides and social events year round.
There are numerous horse properties in Novato. They are concentrated in several highly desirable neighborhoods characterized by an overall country feel, including the Atherton Corridor (along Atherton Avenue between HWY’s 101 and 37), Indian Valley, Wild Horse Valley, and on the western side of town.
If you would like a list of all available horse properties in Novato, California, or Marin County, please get in touch with Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, at (415) 350-9440.
