Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2011 Novato Home Sales Report)

Happy New Year! As I write this real estate report, the stock market is at its highest level since the 2008 meltdown began and up 125 points on the first day of trading in 2011 and the headline on CNN Money is “A Hiring Boom in 2011. Really.” Despite historically low interest rates and overall affordability at its best levels recorded, the overall Marin market was down in terms of sales numbers in 2010. Yet, in December 2010, the Novato, California real estate market continued to show very real strength across all price bands, except for homes priced above $1.5 million. This strength was consistent with the rest of the year’s results.

December 2010 was HOT with 41 home sales. In fact, it was hotter than December 2007 (with 26 sales — Note: click HERE for article dating back to January 2008 “Novato Named “Best Affordable” Town by Business News Magazine”) and December 2008 (35 sales) and about even December 2009 (42 sales). The average sales price of Novato homes in December 2010 was $570,724. These homes averaged 111 days on market, were about 2,078sq. ft., and averaged roughly $283 sq. ft. Novato’s  absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) sits at 2.4 months’ worth of available inventory overall (99 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). This is an extraordinarily low number and will rise as sellers begin putting their homes on the market in coming months.

Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 55% of homes priced under $500,000;
• 54% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000;
• 37% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000;
• 19% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million;
• 27% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million;
• 11% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Of the homes that sold in December 2010:

• 25 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 15 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 1 home priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in The Landing at Hamilton Field, Breakers at Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My new home listing at 10 Audubon Way (in The Landing at Hamilton) closed escrow at the end of the month for $957K (about 3.5% above asking price). If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a J.D., Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Pacific Union International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The Landing at Hamilton Field had its first sale last month (the sale was consumated upon completion of the home). We have another 4 homes that should be ready for occupancy by the end of January or early February 2011. Pricing starts in the mid-$800,000’s. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com

Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). March 2010 saw 43 sales (a huge increase from February’s 24 sales and one higher than the very high December 2009 total). The average sales price of Novato homes in March 2010 rose (again) to $653,072. These homes averaged 91 days on market, were about 2,293 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $298 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered around $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices have stabilized and are holding steady (at least at the entry level). I read that one bank has announced a 95% loan to value ratio for California last week — a product that has been almost entirely absent from the market for nearly 2 years.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) shifted downwards into historically low levels for this time of year) — 3.05 months worth of available inventory overall (131 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 66% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 48% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (54% last month);
• 48% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (39% last month);
• 32% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (28% last month);
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (23% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 39 homes on the market under $500,000, only 13 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

Of the homes that sold in March 2009:

• 19 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 21 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (February 2010 Home Sales Report)

• 86% of homes priced under $500,000 (67% last month);
• 59% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (66% last month);
• 47% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (42% last month);
• 43% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (33%  last month);
• 25% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (24% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)

• 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
• 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
• 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
• 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)

Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.

The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)

Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).

But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.

Marin Luxury Report (April 2009)

Despite my self-imposed limited media diet, I do read headlines. And the headlines are becoming more optimistic. This is a prerequisite for increased buyer confidence. I remain convinced that with minimal social proof, buyers will return to the market and pent-up demand will create a surge in sales figures. Increased conforming loan limits and a pronounced level of increased affordability across the board is a recipe for sales. Buyers with 25% down (and who otherwise qualify) will be able to obtain top-shelf financing for purchases of a little over $1.6 million. While that is not “Luxury” territory here in Marin, many potential move-up buyers of luxury homes must sell their homes first (it is said that 80% of buyers are also sellers) and this will be a big step in the right direction. And interest rates are a full 1-point lower today than they were last year. Certainly, the pump is primed as there are nearly 60 active escrows on homes priced $1 million and up (again, move-up buyers typically need to sell their current home). For national trends,  click here — April 2009, Institute for Luxury Home Marketing. Note, if you would like a local report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, call (415) 350-9440.

[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

Marin Real Estate (February 2009)

As of this writing, the Stimulus Bill and its apparently watered down home buyer tax credit is being finalized. Yet economists and consumers are grim. Ergo, the Marin County, California real estate market continues its slow and steady march into the teeth of a tireless media storm of negativity. Yes, the market overall is fairly slow, but not as slow as it may appear. Sales in Northern Marin’s Novato were up 30% January 2009 over January 2008–as I like to say, “Give Yourself a Raise–Move to Novato!” 

The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is up in 2009 over 2008. Again, while the wheels of the real estate market are sticking and squeaking, they have not fallen off (although sellers are advised to wear seat belts). If you would like a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know. 

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. In addition, I am quite aware that some home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels. As evidenced by frenzied investor activity, particularly in Novato, there is definite traction at the low end. And once prices stabilize at the low end, the rippling effect upwards will follow.

[click here for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com].

Marin Luxury Homes (January 2009)

While many bankers, lawyers, and executives received annual bonuses this year, many others did not. It can be expected that the resulting impact on the luxury market will be felt. Last month I noted a sluggish high end for Marin County real estate and nothing much has changed. In fact, sales and escrows slowed further. National number reflect a similar trend. Click here to view the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s Housing Report dated 1/4/09. If you would like a similar report relating to any town or zip code in Marin or San Francisco, e-mail me and I will send you a pdf of the report.

[Click HERE for the rest of the report, courtesy of www.ImagineMarin.com.]

Call Kyle Frazier, Marin Realtor & CRS, Broker Associate, Frank Howard Allen Realtors of Marin, at 415/350-9440 for more luxury home market information. You can also e-mail Kyle at mailto:Kyle@ImagineMarin.com.

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