Novato Real Estate Market Update (April 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to exhibit strength across nearly all price bands (not so for homes priced above $1.5 million). March 2010 saw 43 sales (a huge increase from February’s 24 sales and one higher than the very high December 2009 total). The average sales price of Novato homes in March 2010 rose (again) to $653,072. These homes averaged 91 days on market, were about 2,293 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $298 sq. ft.

Novato’s price per square foot has hovered around $300 for a year now — in my mind, we are seeing the gradual recomposition of the market in the era of the “New Normal.” Prices have stabilized and are holding steady (at least at the entry level). I read that one bank has announced a 95% loan to value ratio for California last week — a product that has been almost entirely absent from the market for nearly 2 years.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) shifted downwards into historically low levels for this time of year) — 3.05 months worth of available inventory overall (131 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 66% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 48% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (54% last month);
• 48% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (39% last month);
• 32% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (28% last month);
• 16% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (23% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 39 homes on the market under $500,000, only 13 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

Of the homes that sold in March 2009:

• 19 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 21 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 3 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 98.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440.

NEW HOMES: The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Again, if you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (March 2010 Home Sales Report)

The Novato, California real estate market continues to show significant strength across all price bands, except for homes priced above $1.5 million. February 2010 resulted in 24 sales. While down from December 2009′s 42 sales, this is an impressive number because of the short month, two holidays, and weather challenges presented in January and early February (after all, if people cannot go out and look at homes, they are not likely to buy one). The average sales price of Novato homes in February 2010 catapulted upwards by over 20% from January 2010 to $630,938. These homes averaged 147 days on market, were about 2,291 sq. ft., and averaged roughly $293 sq. ft. Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., number of months’ inventory of homes for sale based on last month’s sales totals) bumped upwards slightly as a large number of homes have entered the market over the past two weeks (although we are still hovering at historically low levels for this time of year) — 4.79 months worth of available inventory overall (115 single family homes are currently for sale in Novato). Below are the percentages of homes in escrow in each of Novato’s major price bands:

• 74% of homes priced under $500,000 (67% last month);
• 55% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (66% last month);
• 39% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (42% last month);
• 28% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (33% last month);
• 23% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (24% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Amazingly, out of 38 homes on the market under $500,000, only 10 are not in escrow (and several of these hit the market less than a week ago) — this is simply amazing!

• 14 homes were priced under $600,000;
• 8 homes priced from $601,00 to $1 million; and
• 2 homes priced from $1 million and up.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. My listing at 94 Maybeck Street, Novato (South Gate at Hamilton Field) sold for 88.7% of list price in 10 days. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Realtor, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

The 3 Model Homes being built at The Landing at Hamilton Field (I am the exclusive marketing agent for this project), located adjacent to South Gate, are expected to be completed in June 2010. We expect that the first homes will be ready for occupancy in July or August 2010. Pricing will begin in the mid-$800,000’s. Interest surrounding this new luxury community has been significant. Please call me at (415) 350-9440 for more information. Or visit our website at www.TheLandingNovato.com.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2010 Home Sales Report)

• 67% of homes priced under $500,000 (74% last month);
• 66% of homes between $501,000 and $600,000 (65% last month);
• 42% of homes between $601,000 and $750,000 (53% last month);
• 33% of homes between $751,000 and $1 million (same as last month);
• 24% of homes between $1 million and $1.5 million (19% last month);
• 0% of homes between $1.5 million and up.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novato Real Estate Market Update (November 2009 Home Sales Report)

Leaves are starting to hit the ground as the days grow shorter. But, Novato’s hot market shows no signs of cooling down. In October 2009, 50 Novato, California homes sold, compared with 35 sales in September 2009. Suffice it to say, the Novato real estate market is hot. Entry level home sales have shown sustained strength for the past 6 months. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow remains much higher than the rest of Marin). This exceptional demand is based on stunning affordability (homes are selling now for prices nobody could have dreamed of 3 short years ago) and the fantastically low interest rates.

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part on the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Last month, the average sales price rose to $667,788.

Certain zip codes are performing exceptionally well. For example, in 94949 (Southern Novato) the percentage of homes in escrow is up 38% from last October and the average days on market is down 70%. This is simple supply and demand. Savvy buyers waiting for “the bottom to hit” recognize that we may be there and that any further price erosion will be outweighed by increased interest rates which are likely around the bend. Surely, home buyers in Novato are finding that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $550,000. In the 94949 zip code, median prices year over year dipped a mere 3%. I think many observers would be surprised. Local agents are all talking about a “bounce” in prices over the past several months.

Novato homes that sold in October 2009 averaged 100 days on market, were about 2,267 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $667,788 (roughly $310 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) has dipped to historically low levels — just 2.3 months worth of available inventory overall.

The chart below reflects activity in the $800,000 to $900,000 price band. In this “move-up” price band, there is less than 2 month’s inventory. Lower price bands are even more constrained. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate (Pacific Union International). It is always my pleasure to be of service.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (October 2009 Home Sales Report)

Entering into the dormancy season for Marin County real estate, it appears that certain “hotspots” remain — Novato is one of them. In September 2009, 35 Novato homes sold, compared with 38 sales in August 2009. The Novato real estate market derives its strength from entry level home sales. The number of homes actively listed in Novato remains very low compared with the rest of Marin (and the percentage of homes in escrow is much higher than the rest of Marin) because of exceptional demand based on affordability and the ongoing fantastically low interest rates.

“Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

While the average sales price of Novato homes rose in August to a remarkable $713,440 (based in large part to the makeup of sales), that number fell back to Earth in September — $646,389. Even so, the psychological impact on buyers waiting for bottom to hit has begun to register. Anecdotally, I can attest that many buyers are looking at the inventory of homes in Novato and acknowledging that prices in the lower price bands are level and that it is increasingly difficult to identify “turnkey” homes under $525,000 — $550,000.

Novato homes that sold in September 2009 averaged 121 days on market, were about 2,133 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $646,389 (roughly $313 per sq. ft.). Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) remains extremely low — 3.4 months of available inventory. In March 2009, we had 7.9 months worth of inventory. Generally speaking, 5-6 months of inventory reflects a balanced market and anything under 4 months, a seller’s market. The percentage of homes in escrow also points strongly to an extreme sellers market in the lower price bands.

Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month.

If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your Novato neighborhood or if you have any questions about Novato’s many delightful communities, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier. I am a Broker, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), and a Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist (CLHMS), with Christie’s Great Estates | Morgan Lane International Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Marin Real Estate (August 2009)

Marin real estate has, it appears, survived the worst of the downturn. While prices are down across the board no matter how you slice it, the road to recovery is in view. Yet, virtually every call I get from potential buyers, at some point in the conversation, eventually turns to short sales and foreclosures — distressed sales remain featured on many buyers’ dance cards. In fact, distressed sales are very competitive and often receive multiple offers. In Northern Marin (a.k.a Novato), 82% of homes priced under $500,000 are in escrow (that’s 40 out of 49 homes!). In San Rafael, 84% of homes priced at or below $600,000 are in escrow (that’s 32 out of 38!). These sales are propelled by value, the $8,000 tax credit, and the increased FHA loan limits which went into effect in April 2009.

Early in the year, buyers were ALL talking about how they anticipated interest rates would go down to 3% (and some buyers were insisting that rates would go even lower). I would just nod my head and concede that was a possibility. After all, what do I know about the unknowable? But, I always pointed out that whatever rates fell to, you could never know the bottom until it was gone. And that rates would surely go back up again — I was not going out on a limb; every economist on Earth is saying the same thing (most believe this will occur by the end of Q1 2010). Sure enough, it seems buyers are picking up on this inevitability and they are out in droves.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (August 2009 Home Sales Report)

Last month, for the first time since I began writing Novato monthly updates back in 2006, I stated that it appears that the Novato, CA. market (for single family homes) seems to be improving in two meaningful ways. Certainly, sales have risen from last year and we have several months of increasing sales (as the inventory of short sales and foreclosures is quickly snapped up by motivated buyers).

But, perhaps even more importantly from the perspective of home owners, it also appears that prices at the entry level (e.g., properties priced below $500,000) have bottomed out. As evidenced by the chart below, the 90-day rolling average of Novato home prices has been rising since May 2009. Obviously, higher asking prices do not, ipso facto, result in higher sales prices (some local real estate companies train their agents to give sellers high estimated sales prices in an effort to get any all listings — a major breach of our ethical and fiduciary obligations, in my opinion). But, experts consider this development a leading indicator that market forces are pushing prices higher. I have written in past months about the high level of competition in Novato’s entry level real estate market. This phenomenon also supports the notion that we have hit bottom.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (July 2009 Home Sales Report)

The Novato single family home market seems to be forming a bottom. Prices appear to be leveling out and the percentages of entry level homes in escrow are very high. I know that many foreclosure sales and short sales are getting multiple offers. I have several clients who have faced as many 9 to 20 offers in competition for a single family home. This activity bodes well for sales in the higher price bands.

Moreover, in June 2009, Novato had 38 sales (up from 32 in June 2008). Indeed, this reflects an upward trend over the past few months—May 2009 had 44 sales. Of course, many of these are bargain priced homes such as REO’s or short sales. But, nonetheless, the inventory is rapidly being absorbed as there is extraordinary pent up demand.

Perhaps more significantly, the average sales price of Novato homes jumped up to $666,124 in June 2009. This is an increase from $564,770 in May 2009. While there was one $2 million plus sale (an off market sale), which supported this increase in average sales price, even stripping that outlier sale from the equation, the revised average sales price was over $622,000—a strong bump upwards.

We believe that the move up market has begun to find its legs in Novato and that there are definite signs of improvement in this very important market segment. Interestingly, and in line with recent months, the move-up price bands are selling as well as the entry level price bands:

As of today, here are the percentages of homes in escrow in each price band:

Marin Real Estate (April 2009)

March 2009 new escrows up 17% from March 2008 (and 58% from February 2009) – In Marin County our most reliable indicator of changing market conditions is new escrow activity. New escrow activity bottomed out in December 2008 and began a modest ascent through January and February 2009. I believe the sharp increase in new escrows in March 2009 is a combination of demand returning to our market and the cyclical nature of the business. It stands to reason that thought is that April and May closings will rise accordingly.

Another interesting trend is the surge of activity in central and southern Marin. In the first half of 2008, nearly 60% of the units sold were in central and southern Marin. By January 2009, largely a result of the October 2008 stock market meltdown, this activity gradually fell to 37% of the units sold in Marin. In February and March 2009 the percentage rebounded to nearly 50% of the county’s activity.This upbeat trend in central and southern Marin is consistent with the activity in my business and a solid sign of strengthening buyer confidence. We expect a strengthening Spring season in Marin County real estate.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

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