Marin Real Estate (April 2009)

March 2009 new escrows up 17% from March 2008 (and 58% from February 2009) – In Marin County our most reliable indicator of changing market conditions is new escrow activity. New escrow activity bottomed out in December 2008 and began a modest ascent through January and February 2009. I believe the sharp increase in new escrows in March 2009 is a combination of demand returning to our market and the cyclical nature of the business. It stands to reason that thought is that April and May closings will rise accordingly.

Another interesting trend is the surge of activity in central and southern Marin. In the first half of 2008, nearly 60% of the units sold were in central and southern Marin. By January 2009, largely a result of the October 2008 stock market meltdown, this activity gradually fell to 37% of the units sold in Marin. In February and March 2009 the percentage rebounded to nearly 50% of the county’s activity.This upbeat trend in central and southern Marin is consistent with the activity in my business and a solid sign of strengthening buyer confidence. We expect a strengthening Spring season in Marin County real estate.

[Click HERE for the rest of the article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com.]

Novato CA Real Estate Market Update (June 2009 Home Sales Report)

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) has come true. Here it is: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates, while they are up a point in the past 6 weeks, remain low by historical standards and so buyers are jumping in. Additionally, the first time home buyer credit is helping first time buyers. And finally, I think people are beginning to realize that inflation is coming (along with significantly higher mortgage interest rates). I’ll bet that this time next year, rates will be at least another point higher (somewhere around 6.5%) and seller financing will be gaining popularity.

For an explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. My name is Kyle Frazier, Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), with Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Southbound commute traffic is reduced by about 25 minutes. The improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato Real Estate Market Update (May 2009 Home Sales Report)

While the pipeline of new properties and overall inventory levels increases dramatically throughout most of Marin County, CA (this is the prime selling season, after all), Novato’s inventory level has remained very steady over the past 3 months. Just 151 single family homes are currently for sale. There were 152 homes for sale in April 2009 and 142 in March 2009.

Novato’s absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) again dipped dramatically. In March, Novato had 7.9 months of inventory, in April there was 6 months inventory, and today there just 4.97 months of inventory. Absorption rates and the days on market averages provide a telling insight into the overall state of the market. Today’s shrinking inventory evidences pent up demand and reflects increased affordability for Novato real estate. It is also noteworthy that the absorption rate calculation does not increased “contingent” properties as sold properties. There are another 83 homes in escrow in Novato. More on this striking statistic below.

Of course, there is ample value out there in virtually all price ranges. Prices in most Novato neighborhoods are back down to what they were in 2003 (and 2002, in some neighborhoods). Novato currently has thirteen active listings priced under $400,000 (Novato is Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). In addition, there are 26 homes priced under $500,000. Note that available inventory in these price ranges is way down and the percentages of homes in escrow is rising. For example, 63% of homes in Novato priced under $500K are in escrow; 51% of homes between $500K and $600K; 33% of homes priced between $600K and $750K; 30% of homes between $750K and $1 million; and 25% of homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million. These are some strong numbers!

My prediction relating to phantom buyers (I’ve been talking about this for a year now) is coming true. I hold open houses almost every weekend and I talk to a lot of buyers. Here is my observation: there are LOTS of people who sold over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip. Fortunately for these folks, interest rates are WAY down right now and so they are jumping in. Many of these people sold in Southern and Central Marin and see the extreme value and comfortable existence Novato provides. This past month, even the move-up price band in Novato (with homes priced between $750K and $1 million) is going great with 30% of these homes in escrow.

Twenty-five Novato homes sold in April 2009 (same as March 2009). These Novato homes averaged about 146 days on market, were about 2,120 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $589,000 (roughly $287 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Hamilton Field, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. Insofar as my listings are concerned, I had two closings last month and another scheduled for this month. From my perspective, the market seems pretty active.

Below is a breakdown of the Novato real estate market by price band: 

Now that the the HWY 101 widening project has been completed on both north and southbound lanes, it is clear that the commute through San Rafael is very much improved. Even salty, hardened naysayers concede that the drive to work is now just a drive, not a battle–estimates range from 25-35 minutes saved each day since the completion of the project. As I have been saying for 2 years, the improved commute will certainly make Novato a viable choice for those who had sworn it off because of the traffic. Moreover, the first-time home buyer credit of $8,000 (this is a flat out gift from the government) certainly helps those who qualify. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

As mentioned in prior months’ market updates, it seems that buyers are hypnotized and mesmerized by foreclosures and short sales — as if these properties hold some promise of value and an assurance of happiness. But, instead many buyers of these homes would do it differently if given another chance. After all, many of these homes are in rotten condition and entail lots of work. Wise buyers focus on real value and keep attuned to the benefits of homes that display “pride of ownership.” Not that all distressed sales are problem properties, but caveat emptor for those lured by the siren call of distress. Indeed, investors and buyers who have been burned by the short sale process — it can take months if the proper process is not followed or the banks do not issue approvals — are focused mainly on well priced homes without the strings of REO properties.

Best Location in South Gate, Hamilton Field (Novato CA)

This is a special home with immutable qualities not found in other South Gate at Hamilton Field offerings. Most signifricantly, this gorgeous home is on the levee and has no immediate neighbor to the south — very rare.

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. The last one that did sold within a couple of weeks. This is your chance!

Great Room configuration. Kitchen with granite tile counters, dual-zone wine refrigerator, upgraded appliances, breakfast bar, and work station. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• No rear or immediate southerly nieghbors
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath with views
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling opens to Great Room
• Formal Dining Room
• Chef’s kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Dual-Zone wine refrigerator (36 bottle capacity)
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning / gas fireplace
• Media unit in Family Room with surround sound wiring
• Internet, cable, and phone throughout house
• Distressed oak flooring downstairs
• Amazing landscaping includes hand crafted rock wall and large grassy area
• Window coverings included
• Pre-wired for alarm and Cat-5 wiring installed
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches upstairs and down
• Fire suppression sprinklers throughout home
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion (southbond and northbound carpool lanes have both opened within the past two months)

• Property Address: 89 Moore Road, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $765,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Marin Real Estate (March 2009)

Although February was a short and rainy month, Marin County, CA., still experienced a good number of sales. So far in March 2009. we are seeing increasing inventory similar to “normal” years (I hesitate to call 2009 a “normal” year in light of the current economic situation). Recent gains in the stock market are a welcome change. Interest rates are down to about 5% on conforming loans right now, which is great (that is more than 1 full point lower than this time last year). So, it seems the pump is primed. We’ll see if the real estate market responds.

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. Although word on the street is that at least one big lender has taken steps to loosen up underwriting practices. It is obvious to everybody who comes into contact with the Marin real estate market that home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom. This, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels.

[Click here for the rest of the report, courtesy of NorthBayRE.com.]

South Gate - Paradise Found in Levee Home

Unique opportunity to live in Hamilton Field’s coveted South Gate neighborhood in the most sought after location — on the levee. Few South Gate homes on the levee have come to market in the past 3 years. This is your chance! Great Room configuration. Four spacious bedrooms (all upstairs) and 2.5 Baths. Dining Room, Living Room, Laundry Room, and more. Luxurious Master Suite with views across the Bayside open space and watershed. This home is absolutely move-in ready.

Facts, Features, and Amenities:

• Mediterranean home on the levee
• 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath, 2 car garage
• Master Bedroom with his-and-hers walk in closet and large master bath
• Living Room with vaulted ceiling
• Dining Room
• Gourmet eat-In kitchen with island, pantry and black Corian countertops
• Utility Room
• Fabulous views toward The Bay
• Gorgeous garden with front and back tile patios
• Wood burning fireplace with gas starter
• Media unit in Family Room
• Internet, cable, and phone to all bedrooms
• Oak hardwood on first floor
• Dual zone central air conditioning and heat
• Uplighting on landscaping
• Plantation shutters and 2” wood blinds
• Pre-wired for alarm, Cat 5 wiring installed in all rooms
• Pre-wired audio from media center to dining room, master bedroom, 2^nd bedroom, back patio and garage
• Pre-cast mantle with raised hearth and media niche with library shelves
• Art niches
• Fire sprinklers throughout home, garage and closets.
• Automated landscape and lawn irrigation system
• Backs to open space with direct access to the Bay Trail
• Walking distance to all Hamilton amenities: Southgate Park, Pool, YMCA, Public Library, Art Museum, Café, Hangars, Little League, Soccer Fields, Racquetball Courts, Tennis Courts, Basketball Courts and Gymnasium
• Nearby shopping and dining include the newly opened Hamilton Plaza including Safeway, Pete’s Coffee, Sonoma Latina Grill and Toast
• Enjoy a 30-minute morning commute to SF with HWY 101 widening project approaching completion

• Property Address: 78 Maybeck Street, Novato, CA 94949
• Listing Price: $759,000

If you would like to learn more about this lovely South Gate home on the levee or set up an appointment to see it, please call Kyle Frazier, the listing agent, at (415) 350-9440. 

Kyle Frazier, CRS
Morgan Lane Marin Real Estate

Marin Real Estate (February 2009)

As of this writing, the Stimulus Bill and its apparently watered down home buyer tax credit is being finalized. Yet economists and consumers are grim. Ergo, the Marin County, California real estate market continues its slow and steady march into the teeth of a tireless media storm of negativity. Yes, the market overall is fairly slow, but not as slow as it may appear. Sales in Northern Marin’s Novato were up 30% January 2009 over January 2008–as I like to say, “Give Yourself a Raise–Move to Novato!” 

The chart below shows a 90-day rolling average of Mill Valley’s new listings and absorbed listings (e.g., sales), comparing current numbers with those of last year. Note that the while the numbers for new listings are about the same, the number of absorbed listings is up in 2009 over 2008. Again, while the wheels of the real estate market are sticking and squeaking, they have not fallen off (although sellers are advised to wear seat belts). If you would like a similar chart for any other town or city in Marin or San Francisco, please let me know. 

Obviously, the more stringent underwriting policies of lenders are stifling demand. In addition, I am quite aware that some home buyers are continuing to wait for the perceived bottom, despite the FACT that interest rates are as low as could be realistically expected and prices in many Marin communities and neighborhoods have receded to 2003 or 2004 price levels. As evidenced by frenzied investor activity, particularly in Novato, there is definite traction at the low end. And once prices stabilize at the low end, the rippling effect upwards will follow.

[click here for the rest of this article, courtesy of www.NorthBayRE.com].

Novato Real Estate Market Update (February 2009 Home Sales Report)

Novatans are rejoicing in the completion of the southbound portion of the HWY 101 widening project. I have had occasion to drive during rush hour several times over the past ten days and it is fabulous. NO traffic! This will be a boon to Novato as more people recognize the complete transformation of the commute from horrible to good. Moreover, the tentative approval of the new and improved tax credit will also jolt some buyers into action [click here for my recent article on the proposed package]. As I tell my clients, ”Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Novato inventory is down to a mere 147 active single family homes for sale. There were 172 homes for sale in December 2008 and 150 homes for sale in January 2009. As discussed last month, Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. While the number of sales in January was lower than December 2008’s sales total, January 2009 sales were up about 30% from January 2008. Paradoxically, the absorption rate (e.g., the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato) rose to 7.3 months (it was 4.5 months just a month ago due to the large number of sales in December). If this seems schizophrenic, it is. What I take from this is that sales  are way up at the low end and while the absorption rate jumped this past month, the year over year increase in the sheer number of sales over 2008 is significant.

Foreclosures and short sales have become the de rigueur focus of buyers (especially investors–who are back in the game). Despite the inherent dangers and uncertainty related to these sales they constituted 35% of single family home sales in Novato last year. Many neighborhoods are suffering dramatic erosion of home values. Prices are back down to what they were in 2003. Novato currently offers up about 16 homes priced under $400,000 (as anyone who reads my columns knows, I call Novato Marin’s “Valhalla of Value”). 

The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 65–and an impressive 48% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 79 homes under $600,000 (with 43% in escrow). Significantly, and this unique to Novato right now, the percentages of homes in escrow for $1 million-plus realm are about 25%–we are not seeing such stats in Southern Marin. I think many phantom buyers (those who sold in Central and Southern Marin over the past couple of years and who have waiting for prices to dip are jumping in, resulting in very good sales stats at the higher end). 

Twenty Novato homes sold in January 2009 (up from 14 in January 2008). These homes averaged about 126 days on market, were about 2,066 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $631,000 (roughly $314 per sq. ft.). Homes in Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options.  

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers for your neck of the woods or have any questions about Novato’s many delightful neighborhoods, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (January 2009 Home Sales Report)

With just 150 active listings (there were 172 homes for sale last month), Novato, California is experiencing far lower inventory levels than we have become accustomed to over the past several years. This low inventory is giving rise to some unexpected numerical results. For example, because Novato sales figures are up from last month (we had 35 sales in December 2008). The resulting absorption rate for Novato single family homes is just over 4.25–this figure represents the number of months of inventory currently available in Novato. Anything under 4 months has traditionally been considered a SELLER’S MARKET. Now, I am not saying that Novato’s real estate environment is one that favors sellers, I am just pointing out an anomaly in the numbers. 

Foreclosed homes continue eroding values in many parts of town. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, sub-par conditions and unattractive terms are deterring many buyers who are instead taking the safe road and focusing on non-distressed home sales. As of this writing, Novato boasts 13 homes on the market priced under $400,000. I call Novato the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County. Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato. The number of homes listed under $500,000 is up to 57–and an impressive 46% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 82 single family homes priced under $600,000 (with 38% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus luxury market has continued to lure value shoppers from Southern Marin. As I tell my clients, “Give Yourself a Raise. Move to Novato.”

Thirty-five Novato homes were sold in December 2008–up 8 from November 2008. These homes averaged about 131 days on market, were about 1,945 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $594,000 (roughly $315 per sq. ft.).

Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but because of market conditions are not quite ready to list their home officially. I am also receiving many call regarding lease-options. 

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

Novato Real Estate Market Update (December 2008 Home Sales Report)

“Unscrew the locks from the doors! Unscrew the doors themselves from their jambs!” Never thought Walt Whitman would appear in a real estate article? Neither did I. Yet, this past year’s real estate market in Novato evokes a poetically disjointed and disarticulated scene from Leaves of Grass. It’s been 20 years since I read the book, but I recall the broad themes carrying despair and hope within and between stanzas of its several poems. Those same themes echo metaphorically within our Novato market.

On the one hand, as prices dip back to 2003 levels for condos and entry level homes, those who bought these properties with 100% financing are often finding themselves well underwater. And those positioned to buy are now snapping up Novato’s value properties at previously unfathomable prices. By way of example, earlier today I e-mailed some clients about a Novato condo they sold  in 2006 for $420,000–it is currently a short sale priced under $200,000. Alternately, the number of Novato’s upscale homes in escrow equates with the rate of the traditionally stronger Southern Marin market. As such, Novato “contain[s] multitudes.” 

Although the number of single family homes on the market in Novato is well down off its high earlier this year–there are currently 172 active single family home listings–there are many outstanding values out there as Sellers now understand and appreciate the need for aggressive pricing. The relatively large foreclosure inventory in Novato continues to deflate values in most neighborhoods. Of course, some neighborhoods have been hit worse than others. However, the general condition and the stringent sales requirements forced upon buyers of these homes continue to repel many buyers who refuse to be bullied or take on potentially expensive repairs. Additionally, the rock bottom pricing strategy often utilized are leading to multiple offer situations which are anathema to many buyers who have no inclination to compete.  

While 2 years ago, there may have been 2-5 homes priced under $600,000 in Novato at any given moment, there are about 10 homes in Novato priced under $400,000 right now. Unbelievable? My investor clients agree that Novato is the “Valhalla of Value” in Marin County.

Certainly, we are seeing young and old alike flocking to Novato where the stringent requirements of lenders can more easily be met as compared to the higher priced communities of Southern and Central Marin. About the same as in November 2008, we currently have 32 homes listed under $500,000 and an amazing 60% of these are in escrow. There are a total of 96 single family homes today priced under $600,000 (with 23% in escrow). At the top end of the spectrum, Novato’s $1 million-plus market has slowed, but still boasts a respectable 15% of homes in escrow–right in line with Novato’s southerly neighbors. 

Twenty-seven Novato homes were sold in November 2008–down by 9 from October 2008. These homes averaged about 103 days on market, were about 1,977 sq. ft., and sold for an average sales price of $608,000 (roughly $320 per sq. ft.). Homes in Hamilton Field, Pointe Marin, Country Club, Rush Creek, and Bel Marin Keys generated the most calls and showings this past month. If you are thinking of buying, please call my office at (415) 350-9440 as I have a long list of people who would like to sell their homes, but are not quite ready to list their home officially.

For a brief explanation of the importance of the statistic addressing the percentage of “Pending” listings, click HERE. If you would like me to run the exact numbers on your neighborhood, just give me a call at (415) 350-9440. It is always my pleasure to be of service.

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